The agreement with the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) and with Mexico (few are talking about it, but the Mexicans are also involved) seems to have finally been found after a very long and tortuous path. Now the ball is in the EU Member States’ court, which will have to decide on ratification. In theory, everything should be settled, but when politics comes into play, one never knows: there are many variables and internal disagreements are always possible. This agreement has been lying dusty on the desks of the various states and commissions for almost 25 years, without a final text ever having been reached. On the contrary, for a long time it was seen almost as a bogeyman, especially by many European farmers. It is no coincidence that in past years France, Poland, Austria and the Netherlands have always resolutely opposed the agreement, while Italy has maintained an intermediate position, often pressed by agricultural associations opposed to it, but at the same time supported by other trade associations more favourable to the agreement.

But if this dossier has been dragging on for a quarter of a century and some states were historically opposed to it, how did it come so close to being ratified? The answer has a name, a surname and a date: Donald Trump.
On 02/04/2025, the current US president announced to the world the tariffs that the US would apply to various countries, calling that day ‘Liberation Day’. Since 2 April, therefore, the commercial world (and not only) has been shaken by a real earthquake, which required a credible and united response from the European Union. Brussels could not stand idly by, on pain of further weakening its own production system in global markets.

What does the EU-Mercosur agreement consist of?

But what exactly does the EU-Mercosur agreement consist of?
First of all, it will involve around 700 million consumers, opening the way for European imports (mainly agricultural products and minerals) of around 53 billion and European imports (mainly machinery and pharmaceuticals) of around 57 billion.

Certainly considerable numbers, which give an idea of what is at stake. Turning to the question of duties (here we go), it must be said that 91% of traded products will be exempt, but protective quotas are envisaged to safeguard EU countries: products imported from Mercosur will not be allowed to exceed 2-3% of total European production. These protective quotas will mainly affect the most sensitive sectors, such as beef, pork, poultry, sugar, maize and rice, i.e. those sectors that most fear South American competition.

Can we say, then, that with the EU-Mercosur Treaty Europe has found a real alternative to the US ‘dairy’ market?
According to the numbers, not really. We have seen that European exports to the Mercosur countries amount to about 53 billion. Those with Mexico to about 70.

Do you know how much our exports (in 2024) to the US amount to? As much as 532 billion. As you can well understand, the numbers are incomparable, but this agreement is nevertheless fundamental to allow free trade with the main markets of South America and bring concrete benefits to our companies, which will have new opportunities to grow and diversify their outlets. It is also a political signal, as well as an economic one: Europe is showing that it does not want to suffer passively from Washington’s protectionist moves and that it still believes in the value of multilateral rules. Protectionism is always answered by the free market, because that is the only way to build lasting growth and international credibility.