1,280 days have passed since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the prospect of peace remains distant. Negotiations continue at various levels, but the conditions set by Moscow are considered inadmissible by Kyiv: the daily bombardments against civilian targets confirm its will not to retreat. In this scenario, a bilateral meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have no concrete basis.

Europe and support for Kyiv

The European Union, together with the United Kingdom, cannot afford ambiguity: we must continue to supply arms to Ukraine, tighten sanctions against Russia and those who help circumvent them, and maintain constant pressure on the United States as well. This last point is particularly delicate, because the Trump administration has shown fluctuating attitudes, going from declarations of support to choices that have actually hindered Kyiv.

The goal must be a just peace: withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied territories, complete exchange of prisoners and return of deported children to Russia. To this must be added a binding international security framework, with obligations to intervene that overcome the shortcomings of the Budapest Memorandum. A European military monitoring mission, with troop rotations on Ukrainian territory, would be a concrete signal.

Possible concessions and unresolved knots

The debate remains open on the concessions that Ukraine might consider: the definitive cession of Crimea, which was not adequately defended in 2014, and the renunciation of NATO membership. But on two points there are no doubts: the European integration of Kyiv, which should be accelerated, and the recognition of its role as a pole of military and intelligence excellence useful for the future common European defence.

Russia, for its part, will have to answer for war damages. The immediate confiscation of the real estate and financial resources already seized is an inevitable step. There is no room for discounts or indulgences towards those who have devastated a sovereign country.

Beyond the conflict: the new Europe

The war forces the EU to look beyond the emergency. Common defence, arms production, technological research, strategic supply of raw materials: these are the pillars on which a new, federal and more autonomous Europe must be built. The alliance with the United States and remaining in NATO remain essential, but do not rule out an irreversible path towards a more accomplished European sovereignty.

Moscow after Putin

Even after the war is over, Russia cannot be considered a reliable partner. The system created by Putin – criminal, corrupt, dictatorial – will continue to contaminate the country’s future. For too long after the end of the USSR, the Kremlin has cultivated thegoal of restoring an outdatedimperialism , using any means to retain power.

Trump’s ambiguous role

It is no mystery that the American president is not up to the historic task: more interested in playing the part of the protagonist than in leading a real peace process, he has repeatedly humiliated Kyiv and its president. Zelensky has been treated with condescension in the Oval Office, while the show in Alaska with Putin has produced no results other than the Kremlin’s perception that it can get whatever it wants. Even more serious is the blocking of American arms shipments: a direct blow to Ukrainian resistance.

It is only because of the unity of the ‘willing’ that an important negotiation in favour of Ukraine exists today.

Russian propaganda and interference

Then there is another front: that of propaganda and hybrid warfare. Moscow invests heavily to infiltrate the West, feeding associations, channels of legitimisation and networks of influence that poison the public debate. Here Europe – and Italy in particular – can no longer afford naivety. What is needed is a law that strikes down with harsh sanctions entities, persons and private individuals who knowingly collaborate with the Kremlin’s disinformation machine.