In the great Indo-Pacific chessboard, South-East Asia continues to represent one of the most delicate balancing points. Trade routes, strategic rivalries and regional dynamics intertwine in an area that has become increasingly important in international politics in recent years. For this 2026, the chairmanship of ASEAN passes to the Philippines and there are many issues that Manila will have to tackle.

Manila leading at a time of regional transition

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) enters this year 2026 going through what can be described as a phase of strategic redefinition. The organisation, which was founded in the 1960s with the aim of fostering stability and cooperation among the countries of South-East Asia, now faces very different challenges than in the past.

The economic growth of the region has strengthened the political weight of its members, but at the same time has increased external geopolitical pressure and responsibilities. The United States, China, Japan, India and Australia now look to ASEAN as a key space for Indo-Pacific balances.

On the diplomatic side, the Philippine presidency has tried to emphasise precisely this role. During several international meetings, Manila has reiterated that ASEAN continues to be a reference point for regional stability, a forum capable of keeping the channels of dialogue open even when the international context becomes more tense.

Which is why the Philippines’ presidency comes at a time that is anything but ordinary: ASEAN is being called upon to prove that it can remain central in the new Asian balance.

The strategic weight of the Philippines in South-East Asia

The Philippines occupies a ‘special’ position within ASEAN. Geographically, they lie along one of the most sensitive borders of the South China Sea, an area where territorial claims, trade routes and energy interests overlap.

In recent years, Manila has taken a fairly clear stance in calling for respect for international maritime law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. At the same time, it has tried to maintain a certain diplomatic balance with Beijing, preventing maritime tensions from escalating into a direct confrontation.

In the meantime, the Philippines has strengthened relations with various regional and international partners, especially in the area of maritime security. This position makes them one of the most watched players in South-East Asia, especially when it comes to discussing the future of the regional order.

Leading ASEAN at such a time therefore means having important responsibilities, especially in dealing with issues such as Taiwan.

Maritime cooperation: an axis between the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia

One of the most interesting developments in recent years is the growing cooperation between the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia in the field of maritime security.

The three countries share a common interest: ensuring stability in the waters of the South China Sea and strengthening the capacity to deal with illegal activities at sea, from unauthorised fishing to irregular maritime traffic.

From an operational point of view, cooperation has developed mainly between coastguards and maritime authorities. Joint exercises, training programmes and information exchanges are creating an increasingly concrete cooperation network.

Meanwhile, some legal agreements, such as the delimitation of exclusive economic zones between Indonesia and Vietnam, have helped reduce historical tensions and eventually set an important precedent in the management of maritime disputes.

The signal is sent not too quietly to Beijing, given the recent disputes in the South China Sea, with clashes between the Chinese navy and Philippine fishing boats, and China’s sights on Bajo de Masinloc, the atoll disputed between the two nations.

Taiwan: an obscured but living presence

One of the most sensitive topics in the Indo-Pacific context definitely remains Taiwan.

Within ASEAN, the issue is approached with great caution. The organisation formally maintains the principle of ‘one China’ and direct references to Taipei rarely appear in official documents.

Yet, the issue remains very much present, even when it is not explicitly mentioned.

The Philippines lies only a few hundred kilometres from Taiwan, separated only by the Luzon Strait. From a strategic point of view, any increase in tensions in the Taiwan Strait would have immediate effects on regional security, trade routes and supply chains across the Indo-Pacific.

The Taiwan topic makes noise despite the silence of those who participate and omit their names. There is talk of freedom of navigation, stability in the Straits, respect for international law. Issues that, even without openly naming the island, clearly refer to that fragile balance.

In other words, Formosa (Taiwan) remains one of the great stone guests of regional diplomacy.

The Myanmar issue: a challenge for ASEAN’s credibility

Alongside Taiwan, another very complex issue that ASEAN continues to face is the Myanmar case.

After the military coup and the ensuing internal conflict, the organisation tried to promote a diplomatic path based on political dialogue and humanitarian assistance. However, progress has been limited and the country remains deeply unstable.

During the Philippine presidency, there has been renewed discussion of the need to involve various Burmese actors – political representatives, ethnic groups and civil organisations – in an attempt to reopen spaces for dialogue. Leaving aside official declarations, the reality remains complex: ASEAN’s ability to really make an impact on the crisis continues to be the subject of debate among observers and diplomats.

Myanmar therefore represents one of the main tests for the organisation’s credibility. So what attention will Manila pay to the many issues that remain unresolved?