CouldCanada’s participation in the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme mark the start of a process leading to EU membership?

The idea of seeing the red maple leaf – the symbol of Canada – incorporated into the European Union flag as an emblem of a shared political project remains an ambitious goal and, for many, still amounts to ‘political fantasy’. However, as the years go by and the geopolitical balance shifts, this possibility is becoming increasingly real. The European Union must be ready to seize it.

Following extensive negotiations with the European institutions, Canada is set to become the first non-European country to join the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) programme. This is a military initiative providing for €150 billion in loans to member states, to be used jointly to procure defence equipment, with a particular focus on European industry. The plan forms part of the broader ReArm-Europe strategy, launched in 2025.

But why should Canada join an exclusively European military project?

The reason lies in the shift in the United States’ attitude. Since Donald Trump was re-elected president in 2024, he has adopted an increasingly aggressive and domineering tone towards its northern neighbour. Trump has posted maps of North America on social media in which Canada is incorporated into US territory, has referred to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the ‘governor’ of the 50th US state, and has declared that the border between the two countries is entirely artificial. In addition to threats and intimidation, Canada now finds itself embroiled in a trade war involving duties and tariffs imposed by its main historical ally, upon which it had built much of its economy, strategy and security. For this reason, Ottawa is seeking a new, more reliable and lasting partner, and has identified Europe as such.

Canada has always been one of Europe’s closest allies: it is an observer member of the Council of Europe, has signed several free trade agreements with the EU, and in 2025 became the first non-European country to be invited to the summit of European political leaders held in Armenia. During Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s official visit to France, French President Emmanuel Macron described Canada as ‘the most European of non-European countries’. The President of Finland and the French Foreign Minister have also expressed positive views on the possibility of Canada joining the Union. According to official polls, over 40% of Canadians are in favour of EU membership, feeling increasingly threatened by the United States.

Many argue that Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union would prevent Canada from joining, as it stipulates that only ‘European’ states may accede. However, the treaty never defines exactly what is meant by ‘European’. As early as 1992, a European Commission document entitled ‘Europe and the Challenge of Enlargement’ stated that it is impossible to give a rigid definition of a ‘European state’ and that such status depends on historical, cultural and geographical ties with the continent. Canada fully meets the first two criteria: it was a French and then a British colony, has maintained strong ties with Europe even after independence, has remained within the British sphere of influence through the Commonwealth, fought in both world wars alongside European democracies, and is a member of NATO. From a linguistic, cultural, institutional and values-based perspective, Canada is very similar to many EU Member States.

The only apparent obstacle is geographical, as Canada is located in North America. However , even this barrier can be overcome with the necessary political will. The European Union already includes territories outside Europe: the French and Dutch Caribbean islands, French Guiana, and the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla in Morocco. Furthermore, Cyprus is closer to Asia and Malta to Africa, yet both are part of the EU. If one were to be even more precise, one might note that Canada shares a border with France via the archipelago of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon. Canada already meets most of the accession criteria: the rule of law, protection of minorities, liberal democracy, a public healthcare system and an advanced, globalised economy.

The main obstacle to Canada’s accession (and to further enlargements) remains the right of veto within the Union

To overcome this problem, it would be necessary to create a new multi-speed Europe: a central core comprising the founding countries and those most willing to cede further sovereignty, which would give rise to a true federation ( the future ‘United States of Europe’); a second tier equivalent to the current European Union, with Schengen and the existing treaties; and a third tier open to all democratic states wishing to join, such as Ukraine, Moldova, Albania and, potentially, Canada.

As Prime Minister Mark Carney himself stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2026: ‘If you’re not on the menu, you’re on the table’. In a world dominated by superpowers, Canada too must choose: within a framework based on international law, cooperation and mutual respect. Canada’s potential accession to the European Union would mark the definitive end of the Monroe Doctrine, which since the 19th century has required the American states to remain within the US sphere of influence, and would usher in a new geopolitical vision for the American continent founded on collaboration and respect.