The European Union approved the 19th sanctions package against Russia, which introduces, among the most significant measures, a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. According to Reuters, the measure will take effect in two stages: short-term contracts will be terminated within six months, while long-term contracts will end on 1 January 2027. The ban comes one year ahead of the Commission’s roadmap to end energy dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

This is an important step, but also a belated decision. If the Union has reached its 19th sanctions package today, it means that many measures could have been taken as early as February 2022, when Russian troops crossed the borders of Ukraine. Europe has preferred a gradual, cautious approach, often held back by internal divisions and an excess of caution towards Moscow. But while Brussels sought compromises, the Kremlin consolidated its war economy, adapting to restrictions and progressively shifting its trade towards Asia and the Middle East.

European prudence and the price of slowness

After almost four years of conflict, the feeling is that the West, and Europe in particular, is still moving along an ambiguous ridge: condemning the war without acting in a fully deterrent manner. Sanctions are striking with increasing intensity, but remain reactive rather than strategic. The gradual ban on Russian LNG, for example, is a strong political signal, but with real effects deferred until the end of the decade.
Meanwhile, Moscow has had plenty of time to redirect its energy exports to alternative markets. European sanctions have reduced direct flows, but have not wiped out the Kremlin’s revenues. Faced with this reality, there is a growing conviction that a change of pace is needed: requisitioning Russian financial assets frozen in Europe and turning them into direct funds to support Ukraine is no longer a technical matter, but a matter of political will.

The postponement decided by the European Council, at the request of Belgium, shows that fear of retaliation still prevails over a common vision of European security. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever demanded guarantees that each member state shares the risk, as most of the funds are managed by Euroclear, a Brussels-based company. This is an understandable fear, but also a sign of a Europe that still struggles to conceive of itself as a unitary geopolitical entity.

A wider but still defensive network of restrictions

The new package also introducestravel restrictions for Russian diplomats and the inclusion of 117 new ships in Moscow’s shadow fleet, mostly oil tankers, bringing the total to 558 vessels. The aim is to hinder trafficking that circumvents the oil price ceiling imposed by the West.
In addition, banks in Kazakhstan and Belarus and some entities in India and China that indirectly contribute to supporting the Russian war economy are hit. High Representative Kaja Kallas emphasised that the EU ‘is curbing the movement of Russian diplomats to counter destabilisation attempts’, and that ‘it is increasingly difficult for Putin to finance the war’.

However, if the goal is really to make Russian aggression untenable, more is needed than a new list of sanctioned ships or entities. We need to move from a policy of containment to a policy of active pressure: strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities, including with weapon systems capable of targeting Russian energy and industrial infrastructure. In other words, an extension of the concept of ‘sanction’ from the economic to the strategic level.

The time to choose

Europe is today at a crossroads. To continue to increase sanctions slowly and cautiously means accepting a war of attrition that is destined to drag on. Acting decisively, on the other hand, means recognising that European security is tied to the Ukrainian victory, and that there is no possible neutrality in the face ofplanned and repeated aggression.

The 19th sanctions package is a step in the right direction, but it is not enough. European credibility is no longer measured in the ability to add new measures, but in the courage to apply them without hesitation. The EU still has the time – and the strength – to prove that it is not just an economic union, but a political community capable of defending its values also with instruments of power.
The time to choose is now.

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