A jammed election machine

If one thought that perhaps almost no worse could be done than last year’s presidential elections in Honduras – which ended only after weeks of uncertainty with the emergence of Nasry Asfura – perhaps one should think again. In Peru today, there is a climate of great confusion and widespread fatigue, where politics seems to have lost touch with the daily reality of citizens.

These days, the images arriving from Lima, Cuzco and other regions of the country tell an almost surreal scene: posters everywhere, candidates one after the other, a ballot paper almost half a metre long and a fragmentation that makes everything difficult to read. And as reported by some citizens interviewed by the broadcaster ‘Latina Noticias’, ‘hay cansancio aquí’, (we are exhausted).

The numbers speak for themselves: as many as 35 candidates in the race and over 27 million voters called to vote. Yet, in the midst of this theoretically large turnout, the system jammed and stopped working.

More than 50,000 citizens were unable to vote due to delays in the opening of more than 200 polling stations in the capital. For this reason, the authorities were forced to extend the vote, reopening the polls the following day. An event that, from an institutional point of view, weighs heavily and tells of a disaster.

In the meantime, the partial counting confirms one certainty: no one is able to exceed 17%. The runoff, at this point, becomes inevitable. The most up-to-date projections give an extremely fragmented picture: Keiko Fujimori stands at around 16.8%, followed by Rafael López Aliaga at 12.9%, with Jorge Nieto close behind at 11.6%, while all the other candidates remain below this threshold.

The second round is already set for 7 June. Meanwhile, López Aliaga himself contested the vote in Lima, openly speaking of possible irregularities and further fuelling the climate of tension around an already fragile and frayed electoral process.

A tired country without confidence

On the streets, however, the most obvious fact is another. Citizens appear tired, saturated, almost resigned and exasperated after years of corruption and organised crime.

While it is true that Peruvian democracy continues ‘formally’ to function, it is equally clear that confidence in the system is at an all-time low. In recent years, in fact, there has been an impressive sequence of political crises: impeachments, forced resignations, presidents arrested or overwhelmed by scandals.

The figure is emblematic: the next president will be the tenth in ten years. In short, no one has managed to complete a full five-year term.

Leaving aside individual responsibilities, a strongly structural problem emerges. The Peruvian political system seems incapable of guaranteeing stability, turning each election into a temporary, almost provisional exercise.

Keiko Fujimori and the weight of a surname

In terms of candidates, one name is coming back with great force and that is that of Keiko Fujimori.

Leader of the conservative Fuerza Popular party, she is once again among the favourites, standing at around 17%. A candidacy, that of Keiko, which carries with it a heavy legacy.

Daughter of Alberto Fujimori, president of Peru in the 1990s, her figure remains divisive. On the one hand, there are those who remember the economic stabilisation and the fight against terrorism; on the other hand, there are those who remember the self-righteousness, authoritarian rule and major convictions for human rights violations.

Keiko presents herself as an experienced figure, already in her fourth presidential bid, with a clear line: security, order and a rapprochement with the United States, even openly looking at political models close to Donald Trump.

Right in the lead, but without breaking through

Alongside Keiko, Rafael López Aliaga, entrepreneur and face of Peruvian ultraconservatism, emerges.

His profile is direct, at times provocative. His proposals – such as the idea of transferring dangerous prisoners to isolated prisons in the Amazon – have attracted attention and consensus among a part of the electorate exasperated by crime.

Further back, but still relevant, is the centrist Jorge Nieto, who tries to propose a more moderate, reformist and institutional line.

Overall, the political fact is clear: the right leads the elections, but without being able to completely impose itself. Fragmentation, in fact, prevents anyone from consolidating a strong leadership.

The failure of the Peruvian ‘Bukele model’

Meanwhile, another issue hovers in the political debate: the attempt by some recent leaders, such as José Jeri, to replicate securitarian models similar to that of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador.

An approach that, on paper, pleases a part of the Peruvian population tired of insecurity and state weakness.

In fact, these attempts have not produced concrete results. On the contrary, they have often accentuated institutional tensions without solving structural problems.

A ballot that takes Peru back into the past

The picture of these elections has become clear on at least one point: Peru is heading towards a runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga. A challenge entirely internal to the right, which redraws the balance and leaves out, at least for now, the most relevant progressive forces.

The game will be played on two different visions but with common features, between promises on security, calls to order and a strong focus on relations with the United States.

The only thing that is certain, is that the Peruvian people are still waiting for the ballot, but without any particular impatience, suspended in a stalemate and in the balance, or rather, as they would say in Quechua, ‘mana allin hamuqta yachanchikchu’ (we do not know if anything good will come).