No, it is not the title of a new Mickey Mouse or Geronimo Stilton issue. It is the political picture of the Czech Republic, called to a parliamentary vote on Friday 3 and Saturday 4 October.

From the ‘Velvet Revolution’ to the post-Soviet democratic renaissance

In the 1930s, we would not have found the Czech Republic on the map of Europe. Its territory was part of Czechoslovakia, born in 1918 after the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. A fragile young republic, it would have been easily overwhelmed byNazi expansion with the annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938 and then thetotal occupation in 1939. After the defeat of the Third Reich, Czechoslovakia became part of theSoviet sphere of influence and was among the founding countries of the Warsaw Pact in 1955.

Dissent, however, was never completely stifled. In 1968, the ‘Prague Spring’, led by Alexander Dubček, attempted an internal reform of socialism, which was violently suppressed by the military invasion of 700,000 Warsaw Pact soldiers. Twenty years later, protests flared up again, culminating in the ‘Velvet Revolution’ of 1989, which brought Václav Havel to the presidency and opened the way to democracy. In 1993, the federation peacefully split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia, both of which have been part of the European Union and NATO since 2004.

The Fiala government

The outgoing executive is led by the leader of the liberal-conservative ODS party – member of the European ECR party – Peter Fiala. After the electoral success in 2021 of the Spolu coalition, formed together with the centre-right parties KDU-CSL and TOP09, it gained the confidence of the Poslanecká sněmovna with the support of the independent mayors’ party STAN and the Pirates’ Party. Born as a right-wing government, firmly anchored in Visegrad and distrustful of European institutions, it reoriented its geopolitical posture after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A policy of energy enfranchisement from Moscow, investment in defence, support for Kyiv and proximity to Washington. These are the pillars of Fiala’s post-2022 foreign policy, not by chance referred to as an ‘Iron Melonian’ within the European Conservatives.

Domestically, the government had to manage the economic crisis and high inflationary peaks by adopting a non-progressive additional tax policy, which fuelledaccusations of neglect of the interests of the middle class and excessive favouritism to the country’s wealthy. On his side, Fiala claims to have reduced the Czech deficit-to-GDP ratio from 5% to 2%.

Recently, the executive was rocked by a corruption and money laundering scandal, caused by the discovery of a EUR 40 million hidden bitcoin donation to the Ministry of Justice by the drug trafficker. Tomas Jirikovsky, sentenced in 2017 to nine years in prison, currently at large again.

The main candidates

Methodological note: all figures used referring to polls are taken from the most recent ‘Pool of Pools ‘ by the prestigious publication ‘POLITICO’.

Peter Fiala: polled at 21%, seven points lower than in 2021, the premier is again going to the polls as leader of the Spolu coalition. He has set up his campaign in an anti-Babis key, playing on institutional credibility, balance and the country’s Euro-Atlantic hold.

Andrej Babis: that’s him, the big favourite of this electoral round, with 30% in the polls. Former premier from 2017 to 2021, leading the party he founded ANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens) since 2012. A former security agent for the Czechoslovak Communist Party, after the ‘Velvet Revolution’ he emerged as the sole owner of Agrofert, a company operating in the chemical-agricultural sector. Between 2013 and 2014, he became the publisher of the most important Czech daily newspapers and the country’s most listened-to radio station. Compared to Silvio Berlusconi in his descent, Babis positions himself on a populist Eurosceptic and cross-conservative political platform. In his first term, he governed in coalition with the Czech Social Democratic party CSSD, with the external support of the Communist party KSCM.

The (decisive) second lines

Tomio Okamura: Japanese name, origin and features. Born in Tokyo, son of a Moravian mother. In 2015 he founded SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy), a strongly anti-Western far-right party with pro-Russian leanings. As of today he is credited with over 12% in the polls, potentially the highest result in the party’s history.

Peter Macinka: leader of the party Motoristé sobě (AUTO), in English ‘motorists for themselves’ . A movement born on the occasion of the municipal elections in Prague in 2022, for the first time on the list for parliamentary elections. They are strongly against ecological policies and the Green Deal, making the car movement the symbol of demands for personal freedoms. Euro-sceptic and close to Putinist positions, to date the party is given between 5 and 6 per cent.

The Pirates: pro-European and liberal-inspired party. One of the few in favour of the Czech Republic joining the eurozone. In past elections it collected 15% in alliance with the mayors’ party STAN. In September 2024, following its collapse in the regional elections, it faced the resignation of its historic secretary Ivan Bartos and the concomitant exit from the Fiala government. According to pollsters, the party currently has 10% of the voters, which is growing again.

Other parties: Among the remaining 23 symbols appearing on the ballot paper are that of the pro-Russian far-left coalition Stačilo, composed of several small parties including the last unreformed Communist Party of Central Europe, and that of the movement of Independent Mayors(Stan), with 7 and 11% of the estimated support respectively.

Projections and scenarios: Parliament in the balance

We have understood who the protagonists of this electoral round are. Now let us examine the rules of engagement and the possible post-consultation implications. The electoral law provides for a pure proportional system with 5% thresholds for single lists, 7% for two-party coalitions and11% for three-party coalitions.

Data in hand, no party seems able to govern alone. The polls outline three main scenarios:

National-populist axis: ANO with SPD and Motorists (or Stačilo!), numerically possible but unstable, hindered by the vetoes of President Petr Pavel, who excludes anti-EU or anti-NATO forces.

Pro-EU centrist coalition: Spolu, STAN and Pirates, which would replicate the current government, but without a clear majority without outside input.

Large hybrid coalition: ANO with Spolu and STAN, pragmatic but complex, which could provide stability at the cost of compromises.

In this framework, President Petr Pavelappears to be the decisive arbiter: in fact, he has already promised to exclude from the executive whoever pushes for an exit from the EU or the Atlantic Alliance, introducing an institutional constraint that makes many solutions, though numerically plausible, politically impracticable. The game, therefore, is not only played on numbers but on the compatibility between the partners and the ability to reconcile the necessary internal stability with Prague’s international anchorage, the real knot that will determine the nature of the next government. This is an aspect that Babis seems to hold in high regard, having recently declared his closure to government alliances with ” forces intent on leaving NATO” and “the unwillingness to hold a referendum for the Czech exit from the EU”.

Fallout on the EU and Ukraine

In closing, we cannot fail to say a few words about the significance of these elections for the European ecosystem and institutions, and the fallout they may have in the Ukrainian war context. As we often argue on L’Europeista, every national election must be read through the appropriate lens. At the end of the day, the average voter in any country votes looking at their wallet more than at the highest international systems. So Babis’s probable victory would in no way amount to an overthrow of the Czech institutional set-up, let alone an abjuration of the European path.

Given also the presidential political counterweight, and the non-subversive nature of the tycoon’s party, the EU future of the Czech Republic is not to be considered in danger. It could be affected, on a demagogic rather than concrete level, by support and military aid to Ukraine, the first item of expenditure that Babis will attempt to scale down in favour of the promised rate cuts.

Now, the time for predictions is over, and in a few hours we will know what political future awaits the Czech Republic. Refreshed, we, by the knowledge that there is no proxy showdown between the Kremlin and Brussels. At most, a showdown between revved-up motorists and boarding pirates.