The first round of the French municipal elections, the last major test before the 2027 presidential election, confirmed the entrenchment of the Rassemblement National (RN) and the advancement of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise (LFI).

France Insoumise and Rassemblement National do well in this first round. Their results are sometimes impressive. In Saint-Denis, Roubaix, Lille, Toulouse and Rennes for Mélenchon’s allies. In Perpignan, Marseille, Toulon and, of course, in Nice, where Éric Ciotti is one step away from victory, for the supporters of Jordan Bardella.

Voter turnout shows some timid signs of recovery. 57.6% of the almost 49 million French voters eligible to vote voted; this is about thirteen percentage points more than in 2020, but six points less than in 2014. After the first round, the final sprint now begins, remembering that in the first round one chooses but in the second one eliminates. Lists that obtained at least 10% of the vote can remain in the running for the second round. Those that obtained at least 5% can merge with an already qualified list. Candidates must submit their lists for the second round by 6pm on Tuesday. But only a part of the French electorate will be called to the polls on Sunday, as at least 93% of the municipalities knew the name of their mayor on Sunday evening: only one or two lists were in the running. The vote mainly concerns the big cities and Paris, where as many as five candidates qualified for the second round.

Will we see the usual condemnations and proclamations in the name of the fight against ‘fascism’ on the one hand and Mélenchon’s anti-Semitism on the other?

Apparently the right does not seem willing to cross the Rubicon separating it from the Rassemblement National (RN), because Marine Le Pen has already said no to any agreement. The Left, for its part, will have no scruples. The ‘Faure precedent’ proved it: one can very well judge Mélenchon guilty of ‘intolerable anti-Semitic statements’ and then ally with him in the name of anti-fascism. In the second round, the socialists and greens will be ‘realists’ where their victory depends on their desistance and ‘virtuous’ where it costs them nothing! Therefore, unless voter mobilisation prevents it, a left-wing minority in the country is preparing, taking advantage of the divisions in the opposing camp, to lay the groundwork for electoral victories that would trample all over its moral principles. Observers agree that the Socialist Party, despite the excesses of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will eventually exploit the rise of La France Insoumise (LFI) to maintain control of the major cities.

It is the law of the first round: the day after an evening with neither a clear winner nor a definite loser, everyone can find reason for joy or despair in Sunday evening’s results. Decomposition, fragmentation, polarisation: according to the director of ‘Le Figaro‘, Alexis Brézet, Macron dreamed of dynamising the party landscape; he atomised it. He reshuffled the cards in such a way that no player could claim to have won the game alone. He claimed he wanted to block extremism but exactly the opposite is happening. The Rassemblement National confirms its entrenchment and can hope to conquer a few more strongholds in Nice or Toulon. France Insoumise makes a spectacular raid – in Roubaix, Saint-Denis, Lille and Toulouse – and confirms the effectiveness of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s poisonous strategy. The ‘old parties’, left and right, are not doing so badly. In the big cities, the Socialist Party (PS) and its Green allies are doing better than expected. Solid in medium-sized cities, the Republicans (LR) are still searching for their symbolic victory. As for Macronism at the municipal level, it died before it was even born, but the centrist bloc finds at least one reason for hope in Édouard Philippe’s excellent result in Le Havre.

The question arises especially on the left, as the Socialist Party, which governs many large cities, faces the significant rise of France Insoumise (LFI) in France’s urban areas. ‘A magnificent turnaround,’ declared Jean-Luc Mélenchon. LFI candidates – classified for the first time as ‘far left’ by the Ministry of the Interior – made it to the second round in most of the country’s major cities. In Toulouse and Limoges, they are even overtaking the Socialist Party candidates. In Lille, the candidate of La France Insoumise, Lahouaria Addouche, is neck and neck with the outgoing Socialist mayor, Arnaud Deslandes, successor of Martine Aubry.

This ‘remarkable progress’, as the party’s national coordinator Manuel Bompard called it, allows La France Insoumise to establish itself as an indispensable force on the left. Bompard called for ‘the formation of an anti-fascist front’ with the other lists, while ruling out the withdrawal of any France Insoumise candidate. This poses a dilemma for the Socialists and Greens, who are vying for LFI votes to keep their strongholds next Sunday. Like in Marseille, where the outgoing mayor, Benoît Payan (former Socialist Party member) would have a three-point lead over Rassemblement National candidate, Franck Allisio. Or in Nantes, where the outgoing mayor, Johanna Rolland, is trailing the right-wing, centrist candidate, and a three-way race with La France Insoumise (LFI) is looming.

For the right, however, the main concern is to salvage what can be saved, as they no longer have mayors in charge in municipalities with more than 200,000 inhabitants, with the exception of Toulouse, where outgoing mayor Jean-Luc Moudenc (formerly of The Republicans) is threatened by the left. The Republicans (LR) now risk losing Nîmes. And their hopes in Paris are seriously compromised, as Rachida Dati is far behind the Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire.

The Republicans, much better represented in medium-sized cities, nevertheless remain ‘a significant local political force’, said its president, Bruno Retailleau, who called for a ‘great mobilisation of the right’ to ‘defeat the left and LFI‘.

“The only instruction I give tonight is not to vote for LFI,” the former interior minister continued, calling for the defeat of “those socialist, green and communist candidates who allied themselves with the extreme left in the first round or who will do so this week between the two rounds.” “Shame on those who ally themselves with a party that no longer has anything to do with republican principles,” Retailleau declared, denouncing “shameful agreements”.

Almost nine years after the election of Emmanuel Macron to the Elysée, these elections confirmed the significant weakness of the presidential front at the local level. Lacking the political momentum necessary to launch a direct attack on the big cities, the Renaissance presidential party, led since 2024 by Gabriel Attal, has preferred to forge alliances to try to secure seats in municipal councils. And it will have to be content, to a large extent, with a spectator role during this week between the two rounds of voting, although the situation in Paris – where Renaissance has backed Pierre-Yves Bournazel and not former minister Rachida Dati – could once again pose a challenge.

Gabriel Attal is trying to reiterate a national message to position himself for the presidential elections: anything but ‘extremes’. “There will be a kind of moment of truth in this period between the two rounds,” he said on Sunday, insinuating that “the Republican left” and “the Republican right” are taking an unexpected turn. “We will not participate in any alliance, direct or indirect, neither with the extreme left of La France Insoumise, nor with the extreme right of Rassemblement National, Reconquête or Éric Ciotti’sUDR,” the former prime minister insisted. Gabriel Attal’s position is in stark contrast to the one he had adopted during the 2024 legislative elections, when he had called for a united front against the Rassemblement National (RN), even going so far as to support La France Insoumise (LFI) in some constituencies. Even his rival, Édouard Philippe, well positioned for re-election in his stronghold of Le Havre, adheres to the ‘neither one nor the other’ line.

One should not be fooled by the republican posturing of La France Insoumise (LFI). Its real goal is not to prevent the right or the RN from winning in the cities, but to embarrass the rest of the left. Mélenchon wants to force the socialists to abandon the ‘cordon sanitaire’ that some, like Raphaël Glucksmann, would like to impose against LFI. Hence the pressure on Emmanuel Grégoire in Paris and Benoît Payan in Marseille. The Socialist Party (PS) officially rejects any alliance with La France Insoumise (LFI). But what will happen between now and Tuesday? In Toulouse, for example, where only an alliance can overturn the city’s fortunes?

In this first round, the central bloc remained largely silent. One of its leaders, however, can breathe a sigh of relief: Édouard Philippe. Although it was initially predicted that he would have difficulties, his re-election in Le Havre is practically certain. He will finally be able to launch his presidential campaign and try to prove that there is a real alternative to LFI and the Rassemblement National (RN).

Another factor to consider is that, as in 2001, the vote is held a year before the presidential elections, the only ones that, in the eyes of many French people, are capable of unblocking a political system paralysed by the failed dissolution of Parliament in 2024. Since the Constitution prevents him from running for a third consecutive term, the aim is also to turn the page after Emmanuel Macron’s decade.