The Arctic, one of the most vulnerable and strategic ecosystems on the planet, is now a testing ground for the European Union’s ability to combine environmental sustainability, geopolitical stability, and economic competitiveness. In a global context dominated by the expansionist ambitions of superpowers such as Russia, China, and the United States, the EU is seeking to assert its own vision based on cooperation, respect for human rights, and sustainable development. This article analyzes the European strategy for the Arctic from a historical, political, and environmental perspective, comparing it with the aggressive logic of global actors and ultimately questioning Europe’s real possibility of emerging as a protagonist in a new polar race.

Global warming has transformed the Arctic from a remote and frozen periphery of the world into the epicenter of a new global contest. It is warming three times faster than the global average, causing permafrost to melt, sea levels to rise, and entire ecosystems to destabilize. But the issue is not only environmental: with the opening of new trade routes and the emergence of immense mineral and energy resources, the region is now the subject of growing geopolitical competition. In this scenario, the European Union is attempting to exert its own influence, in line with the principles on which it is founded but also with contemporary global challenges.

The EU’s Arctic strategy: between vision and reality

In 2021, the European Commission presented a new strategy for the Arctic, based on three main pillars:

• Promotion of peace and geopolitical cooperation
• Combating climate change and protecting the environmen
• Inclusive and sustainable economic development

These objectives reflect the EU’s desire to act as a ‘regulatory power’, capable of promoting an international order based on rules, multilateral agreements, and respect for human rights. The diplomatic presence was strengthened with the opening of a European office in Nuuk, Greenland, in March 2024, accompanied by the signing of two cooperation agreements worth a total of €94 million. The goal: to create jobs and sustainable infrastructure in Greenland and strengthen European energy security by focusing on strategic raw materials and renewable sources. But is this strategy sufficient, or is it merely an attempt to exercise “soft power” in an arena dominated by far more unscrupulous logic?

The Arctic between superpowers: the return of hard geopolitics

In the new Arctic “Great Game” the United States, Russia, and China are rapidly changing the rules. Washington has increased its diplomatic and military presence in Greenland since 2019, even going so far as to float the idea of acquiring the territory during the Trump administration. Beijing, for its part, has included the Arctic in its Belt and Road Initiative, forging strategic agreements with Moscow, such as the one in Russia’s Yamal district for the construction of a new gas pipeline to China. Finally, Russia, after assuming the chairmanship of the Arctic Council (2021-2023), has seen cooperation freeze due to its invasion of Ukraine. Isolated from the West, it has intensified its Arctic activities in partnership with China, militarizing increasing portions of the region and accelerating energy infrastructure projects. In this scenario, Europe’s posture—more cooperative than assertive—risks being perceived as weak or, worse, irrelevant.

Climate and science: Europe’s true frontier

However, the European Union has a competitive advantage that superpowers often overlook: science. The data speaks for itself. Between 2016 and 2023, more than 25,000 scientific publications on Arctic issues were authored by European scholars. The Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe research programs have allocated more than €370 million to support projects on biodiversity, climate adaptation, green technologies, and satellite monitoring. The EU is a leader in environmental remote sensing thanks to Copernicus, and has created an Arctic Hub for observing the region. At the same time, Erasmus+ projects have enabled thousands of Arctic and European students and researchers to exchange skills and know-how. These investments in knowledge constitute a form of ‘unconventional’ but very powerful influence: shaping the future through science and international cooperation.

Green economy and local development: the sustainable pillar

One of the central pillars of the European strategy is the Arctic energy transition, which is to be guided by the principles of sustainability and respect for local communities. Brussels has allocated €225 million to Greenland between 2021 and 2027, aiming to diversify the local economy with investments in green hydrogen, renewable energy, and professional skills. The EU supports moratoriums on new fossil fuel extraction in the region and is pushing for the creation of marine protected areas as part of the global ‘30×30’ initiative. Particular attention is being paid to the threat posed by permafrost: its melting not only exacerbates climate change, but also risks releasing pathogens that have been dormant for millennia. Europe’s commitment also extends to the fight against microplastics and black carbon, with ambitious reduction targets by 2030. Arctic maritime transport is also a focus, with proposals for green corridors and zero-emission ships.

Italy and the Arctic: a small player with great traditions

Despite its status as a medium-sized power, Italy has a long and noble tradition of Arctic exploration and research. From Umberto Nobile’s expeditions to the activities of the Silvio Zavatti Polar Institute, our country boasts strong scientific and cultural capital in the area. At the institutional level, Italy has been an observer of the Arctic Council since 2013 and formalized its own national strategy in 2016, focused on peace, security, and sustainable development. The Dirigibile Italia scientific base in Svalbard is a European reference point, and the growing presence of Italian companies in the environmental technology and energy sectors testifies to the economic interest in the region. However, as with the EU, it remains to be seen whether Italy will be able to translate its soft power into strategic influence.

“Arctic diplomacy” – the new frontier of the multipolar world

The Arctic is now a testing ground for Europe’s ability to deal with the advancing multipolar world. While China, Russia, and the US are moving forward with assertive, often aggressive, approaches, the EU is proposing an alternative: multilateral cooperation, innovation, environmental protection, and respect for local communities. But this vision, however noble, risks remaining marginal without adequate political and military tools to support its ambition. Ongoing geopolitical tensions—from the crisis in Ukraine to Trump’s new activism in Greenland—expose the limits of a diplomacy that often relies on principles rather than real power.

If we Europeans really want to be protagonists in the race for the Arctic, we must abandon the illusion that morality alone is enough to win. We will need an integrated strategy that combines ethics and pragmatism, soft and hard power, idealism and realpolitik. At stake is not only the fate of a region, but the very credibility of the European project in the 21st century.