Indyref2, Westminster and the Cardiff Axis: the Celtic revival

The shadow of Indyref 2 over Westminster and the Cardiff axis: the ‘Celtic revival’ that is causing concern in London

indyref2-westminster-asse-cardiff-risveglio-celtico: Scozia, Galles e Irlanda davanti a Westminster in una rappresentazione simbolica del nuovo fronte celtico.

Antonino Signorello

17/09/2026

Powers

A careless statement by the British Prime Minister has reignited the debate over the Scottish referendum. But what is really causing concern in Downing Street is the pact signed in Wales between the SNP, Sinn Féin and Plaid Cymru: a united front for self-determination which declares that ‘the era of Westminster is over’.

Sometimes, in politics, it is not an address to the nation that changes the course of events, but a remark that slips out amongst the benches of Parliament. A single statement by the British Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, during a recent Prime Minister’s Questions session was enough to reignite a fuse that London had hoped was by now dampened: that of the second referendum on Scottish independence (the so-called Indyref2).

The parallels with Northern Ireland

In response to a question from Scottish National Party (SNP) MP Chris Law, Burnham drew an unprecedented – and, in many respects, politically explosive – parallel. The Prime Minister stated that the rules for triggering a new referendum in Scotland should be “exactly the same” as those laid down for the reunification of Northern Ireland.

The Downing Street short circuit

This comparison is far from trivial. The Good Friday Agreement clearly stipulates that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland must call a border poll if it appears likely that a majority of the population will vote to leave the United Kingdom. Until yesterday, the government in London had consistently rejected the idea that a similar mechanism could apply to Scotland, for which there is no equivalent constitutional provision.

Although Burnham was quick to add that he was “not aware of any majority support for another referendum”, the die had already been cast. For the first time since 2014, a sitting British Prime Minister has publicly acknowledged the principle that a certified majority in opinion polls would make a referendum inevitable.

Edinburgh was just waiting for this, and the Scottish First Minister, John Swinney, immediately called for a ‘legal mechanism’ to be agreed upon for the vote.

The Cardiff Summit and the birth of the ‘Celtic Axis’

But whilst Burnham’s words may have opened a breach, it was what happened last Monday in Cardiff that represented the real earthquake for the British establishment. In an event that feels like history in the making, the leaders of the three devolved nations gathered in Wales to sign a Memorandum of Understanding of incalculable political significance.

Seated at the same table were John Swinney (Scottish First Minister and leader of the SNP), Rhun ap Iorwerth (Welsh First Minister and leader of Plaid Cymru), Michelle O’Neill (First Minister of Northern Ireland) and Mary Lou McDonald (President of Sinn Féin and Leader of the Opposition in Ireland). The message sent to Downing Street is unequivocal: “Westminster’s time is running out”.

The right to self-determination

The document signed in Cardiff is a clear assertion of the rightto self-determination. “No government in Westminster has the right to block democracy or undermine the principle that our people will decide their own future,” the memorandum states.

But it is not just about independence: the agreement sets out a shared vision that rejects “Whitehall’s failed economic model”, focusing on social justice, a locally managed energy transition and, above all, a future back withinthe European Union, condemning the damage caused by Brexit.

The polls and the uphill struggle

The images of Swinney, ap Iorwerth, O’Neill and McDonald signing the agreement mark an unprecedented political development: for the first time, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are all led simultaneously by centre-left nationalist parties.

A ‘Celtic front’ which, despite differing timetables and levels of urgency (Swinney is pushing for a Scottish referendum within five years, whilst Wales is taking more time to ‘persuade’ its citizens), is forcing London onto the defensive.

The SNP has already published a scathing manifesto, *A Future as a Real Partnership of Equals*, in which it accuses the unionist parties of seeking to stifle the debate simply to conceal their ‘broken promises’ from 2014 regarding the NHS, Brexit and the economy.

The figures on independence

Whilst the political scene is in turmoil, opinion poll analysis, however, calls for caution. Sir John Curtice, Britain’s most authoritative political scientist, has dismissed Burnham’s remarks as a ‘slip of the tongue’ (misstatement), bringing the debate back to the cold, hard figures.

Opinion polls in Scotland paint a picture of a country split down the middle: 52 per cent in favour of independence versus 48 per cent in favour of remaining part of the United Kingdom, whilst support for secession in Wales and Northern Ireland stands at just over 30 per cent.

According to pollsters, a statistical margin of error will not be enough to truly force Westminster to grant an Indyref 2: the Scottish ‘Yes’ camp will need to stabilise clearly and consistently at around 60 per cent.

The game for the future of the United Kingdom

We are still a long way from that threshold. And yet, the door that British governments had bolted shut after 2014 has now been reopened. Between parliamentary admissions in London and the historic Cardiff agreements, the chess match over the future of the United Kingdom has just begun again.