Minister Crosetto, interviewed by Francesco Giorgino during the programme XXI Secolo on Rai 1, outlined the Italian defence strategy for the near future.

The Century of the Great Powers

The time of great democracies is over, the time of great powers has come. The world is changing and Italy will have to be ready. This is the message that Defence Minister Guido Crosetto gives to viewers of Francesco Giorgino’s programme, XXI Secolo. As the Minister pointed out, the international arena has undergone profound and sudden changes that are requiring necessary adjustments by all the major international players.

Reasoning about the role of the United States of America in the international arena, Crosetto said he was not surprised by President Trump’s stances because, according to the Defence Minister, they were entirely predictable for those who followed the last US presidential campaign.

‘Trump is not the earthquake, he is the seismograph,’ said the minister, responding to Francesco Giorgino’s remarks, ‘of a world that is changing culturally. It is the age of great powers, not of great democracies‘.

The novelty for Crosetto, in this century dominated by economic and military powers, could be that of a reformulation of the G7; a reformulation that would not take the Minister by surprise either. Indeed, following the geopolitical logic outlined by the Trump administration, according to Crosetto the next G7 could do without nations like Italy and France, leaving room for Russia, China and India.

The hour of European defence

In this new international order, a renewal of European defence can no longer be postponed. Stimulated by the journalist’s questions, the minister spoke about the opportunities of ReArm Europe, explaining how he does not like definitions, but prefers to discuss complex topics such as European defence. A subject that needs not slogans, but explanatory clarity. The European plan, Crosetto explained, is developed along two economic lines: on the one hand, there is a 150 billion financing plan to foster the growth of the European defence industry; on the other, there are 650 billion that will have to go through the European Parliaments for approval. It is therefore not such a simple process. Moreover, the minister emphasised, it would have been preferable not to talk about rearmament, but about building a defence that is up to the challenges of the time.

Indeed, compared to the times of De Gasperi and the European Defence Community, the geopolitical context has changed and it is no longer possible to choose to totally delegate one’s defence to third states, even if they are our closest allies like the United States. The signs of Washington’s change of posture, for Crosetto, had been clear for some time, ever since the Obama presidency. That is why it is necessary to renew the Italian army (one of the armies with the highest average age) and to strengthen, as Crosetto had already written in a letter to Corriere della Sera, the European pillar within NATO.

The Russian danger

In closing, pressed by Francesco Giorgino’s questions on the real danger of an imminent Russian attack on Europe, Minister Crosetto represented to the Director that, in his opinion, there is no real danger of a Kremlin attack on a European country other than the one already launched against the Ukrainian people.

“There are those who, like the countries of Eastern Europe or Sweden, think that Russia is a threat and consider war not as an eventuality, but as a certain fact,’ expressed Minister Crosetto, specifying, however, that he does not have ‘such a negative view’ and considers war still far away, although he cannot fail to note that ‘Russia is growing from one million soldiers to 1.6 million and is increasing its reserves to 2 million, even producing more weapons than the entire West put together’.

In this framework of profound uncertainty, the Defence Ministry’s task, according to Crosetto, is to be ready, without alarmism or frenzy, and to foresee every possible scenario, even the worst.