At a time when the balance of power in the Horn of Africa and the wider Mediterranean seems to be shifting rapidly, Israel’s decision to officially recognise Somaliland as an independent state marks a historic turning point.
This move breaks decades of international isolation for Hargeisa and opens up new strategic scenarios in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and international sea corridors. Tel Aviv’s choice is not to be defined merely as a diplomatic gesture, but an operation that intertwines security, regional competition, and economic and military calculations.

Somaliland: a dream finally coming true?

Somaliland is a region in the Horn of Africa that declared its independence from Somalia during the chaos unleashed by the civil war in the 1990s.
Although it has never gained admission to the United Nations, it has been running its own institutions independently for more than three decades: the country has a stable currency, army and elected government and effectively controls a large portion of northern Somalia.

Its pre-modern history is unique: once a British protectorate separate from Italian colonial Somalia, the territory was briefly a recognised state after independence in 1960 before joining Somalia.
When the central government collapsed, local leaders proclaimed independence again in 1991: an act never recognised by the international community but supported by domestic institutions and relative internal stability.

Over the years, Somaliland has built its own political and civic identity, holding regular elections and scheduling a constitutional referendum that strengthened its de facto autonomy.
However, while long considered one of the most peaceful territories in the region, it has always struggled to gain genuine international legitimacy.

Israel and Somaliland: why now?

When Israel announced the recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state – the first country in the world to do so officially – it signed an agreement for full diplomatic relations, including embassies and official exchanges.

According to Tel Aviv, the step was taken in the spirit of the Abraham Agreements, the famous series of understandings and normalisation with Arab and Muslim states.
But behind this declaration are far more concrete strategic interests. Somaliland controls the north-west coast of former Somalia, overlooking the Gulf of Aden and close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an essential passage point for about 30% of world container traffic: a vital maritime corridor for trade between Europe, Asia and Africa.

For Israel, the stability of this corridor is more than crucial. The growing insecurity in the Red Sea – exacerbated by the Houthis’ offensives in Yemen and their attacks on commercial vessels – has put pressure on traditional routes, making alliances that can guarantee presence and surveillance in strategic border areas valuable.

In this context, given the increasing global competition for control of maritime routes and resources, a stable partner like Somaliland offers Israel – and potentially its allies – a gateway to the heart of the Indian Ocean, with prospects also for intelligence, logistics and maritime monitoring.

Berbera: the port that looks to the world today

The port of Berbera, Somaliland’s main commercial infrastructure, is one of the most strategic nodes on which this new alliance rests. Located on one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, Berbera has been the subject of international investment – particularly by Gulf and East African companies and states – precisely because of its potential as an alternative logistics hub to Djibouti.

The port is not only a commercial terminal: its location also makes it a natural candidate for military uses or for facilities to support maritime security operations, especially at a time when international shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb is under pressure. The possibility of cooperation in maritime security, port technology and logistics has immediate strategic value for Israel and other actors interested in greater access to East Africa and the Middle East.

Resources and wealth: beyond geopolitics

In addition to its strategic location, Somaliland is not without natural resources: the territory boasts significant mineral deposits, including deposits of zinc, lead, oil potential and other extractive resources that, if properly developed, could attract significant investment.
Internal political stability, unique in the area, favours a more predictable framework for industrial operations than in other parts of Somalia. However, the scarcity of international recognition has so far hindered large-scale projects.

Israel’s recognition now opens the door to potential technical investments, trade and partnerships on raw materials, technology and infrastructure, bringing Somaliland into a wider economic circuit than its traditional diplomatic marginality.

Meanwhile, Somaliland President Abdirahman Cirro welcomed the recognition with statements of strong political pride, presenting it as the crowning achievement of a journey of stability and self-determination that began decades ago. A step that strengthens internal legitimacy and boosts the territory’s economic ambitions.

Unity versus secession

Tel Aviv’s impulse did not go unnoticed in neighbouring countries. The recognition was strongly criticised by Somalia, Turkey, Egypt and Djibouti, which called it interference in Somali affairs and a dangerous precedent for other secessionist movements.

Ankara, an ally of Mogadishu, spoke of a violation of Somali sovereignty, pointing out how the Israeli choice could undermine regional relations and thus foster an increase in tensions in an already unstable area. Egypt expressed similar concerns, emphasising support forSomalia’s territorial unity and condemnation of any act that might push other territories to seek unilateral recognition.

This opposition reflects broader fears: a precedent of recognition could encourage other separatist groups or complicate diplomatic relations between African countries, many of which fear an escalation of similar demands that could destabilise state balances.

Hargeisa towards an uncertain but open future

Israel’s move represents a point of no return for Somaliland, which, while still a non-member territory of the UN, has finally crossed the threshold of diplomatic legitimacy with formal recognition. This may stimulate other states to follow Tel Aviv’s example or at least to initiate unofficial relations, amplifying Hargeisa’s voice on the international stage.

In any case, this is not an isolated episode. Somaliland had previously signed strategic understandings with Ethiopia, particularly over access to the port of Berbera, opening a breach in the regional status quo . The entry of Israel as the first formal recogniser consolidates this trajectory, inserting Somaliland into wider economic and strategic networks than its traditional diplomatic marginality.

The game, however, still remains open and full of unknowns: the opposition of neighbours, the sensitivities of major regional players and the central Somali issue will make a rapid and straightforward normalisation difficult. It remains to be seen whether this isolated gesture is the beginning of a new diplomatic architecture for the Horn of Africa or an element of further friction that will cause new tensions.

A geopolitical bet and for the world

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is a momentous event combining strategy, economics and diplomacy. Situated at the junction of the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a gateway to major global trades, Somaliland has suddenly become a key player in a much larger game than Africa.

In the global scenario, in which trade routes, military alliances and regional rivalries are increasingly intertwined, Israel’s choice can be interpreted as a diplomatic and strategic gamble: to bet on a stable, moderate partner willing to cooperate on security, technology, ports and economic prospects, in an area where few states enjoy real credibility.

In doing so, Tel Aviv has ignited a debate that will probably not end soon, marking a new and complex chapter in the Horn of Africa’s international relations. Is this the dawn of a new day for Somaliland and the Horn of Africa? And how many countries will now follow Israel in recognising Hargeisa?

There are many different questions. What is certain is that Israel has taken the first big step, displacing the actors in the region. In the meantime, Taiwan, Somaliland’s great friend and trading partner, is also closely observing the new developments.