Spanish politics is in suspense. On the one hand, a central government that appears worn down by crises and controversies; on the other, an opposition that is changing skin, especially at regional level.
While Madrid remains the symbolic centre of power, it is in the autonomous communities (the equivalent of our regions) that the most delicate game is being played today.

The Sánchez government under pressure

From the point of view of the executive led by Pedro Sánchez, the moment is decidedly complicated. Over the last few months, difficulties upon difficulties have accumulated that have affected the perception of stability: the management of the emergency linked to DANA (the tragic flood that swept the country in 2024, causing death and destruction), the train accidents that fuelled strong protests and controversy, the‘Apagón’ (total blackout) episode that reignited the debate on the country’s energy infrastructure.
Added to this are scandals and political shadows involving leading figures very close to the Spanish Prime Minister.

Above all, the case of José Luis Ábalos, better known in Spain as the ‘Koldo case’, which has had a major impact on the government’s image, given the corruption scandal, as well as the criticism levelled at Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, accused of mismanagement of public order and security. Meanwhile, the parliamentary majority remains fragile, bound by complex balances and compromises with territorial and independence forces.

This is why the opposition has started to move more decisively, especially on the regional ground, leveraging the strong signal that such votes could send to the executive.

The new opposition axis

The Partido Popular led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo recently set a national framework for agreements with Vox.
A ‘marco-document’ (i.e. a framework-agreement) that aims to standardise negotiations in the different autonomous communities, with very clear criteria: respect for the proportionality that came out of the ballot box, approval of budgets to guarantee stability, defence of national unity and the constitutional framework.

It seems, however, that Vox leader Santiago Abascal greeted the PP’s proposed document with strong irritation, calling it ‘incorrecto’. In his opinion, setting up a negotiating framework as if the Partido Popular had to somehow ‘tame’ Vox is a political mistake and a misplaced approach, as well as a lack of respect towards popular regional leaders such as María Guardiola and Jorge Azcón, who are directly involved in negotiations in the territories.

The PP’s spokesperson at the congress, Ester Muñoz, then responded to the criticism, urging Abascal to remain calm, describing the document as an ’embryo’ for negotiations, designed to give transparency and certainty to the dialogue, especially now that the PP and Vox have to form stable governments in the autonomies where the PP does not have an absolute majority.
In fact, Ester Muñoz stressed that the text is a declaration of intentions and not an imposition, and said she is convinced that it will be possible to reach an agreement with Vox, reiterating that the citizens “have spoken clearly” with their vote in the last regionals.

The regionals as a big test for a future executive

Leaving aside the national dimension for a moment, the autonomous communities are becoming real political testing grounds.
InExtremadura, the PP sought to consolidate its leadership after putting aside internal resistance and centralising negotiations with Vox.
InAragón, the election result made a structured dialogue inevitable.
Castilla y León represents a challenge: if the alliance were to strengthen there, it would consolidate a model exportable elsewhere.

But why is it important to take these territories into account?

In reality, these count for more than meets the eye. They are areas with a strong symbolic weight, linked to issues such as agriculture, regional taxation, family policies, security. Issues that the PP has included in its decalogue as priorities: reduction of autonomous taxes, fight against illegal employment, support for the primary sector, review of energy policies.

Meanwhile, Vox capitalised on widespread discontent in rural and peripheral areas, intercepting votes that used to be distributed between popular and socialist parties.

The meeting point between Feijóo and Abascal

The meeting between Feijóo and Santiago Abascal revolves around a few concrete points: the centrality of national unity, criticism of the management of irregular immigration, attention to security, and a review of environmental policies considered penalising industry and agriculture.

Feijóo tries to maintain an institutional profile, talking about stability and governability, drawing a red line with the prohibition for Vox to ally with the controversial Basque party Bildu, but finding common ground with Vox itself in certain proposals such as the prohibition of the burqa in public spaces.
Vox insists more on identity and sovereignty.
While it is true that differences remain, it is equally true that the distance has narrowed, and not by a little, compared to a few years ago.

The hypothesis of a stable understanding in the regions could normalise the alliance, thereby making it less exceptional in the eyes of the electorate, in view of the upcoming general elections in Spain.

A constantly evolving balance

At present, Spain is in a phase of redefining the political balance. The Sánchez government appears weakened by a sum of crises and an overstretched majority.
The opposition is building an alternative that starts from the territories and could become a national model.

For Feijóo, the regionals can be a key step: demonstrating governance capacity, securing approved budgets and presenting itself as a reliable force. For Vox, the goal is to consolidate growth and obtain a decisive role in the autonomous juntas.

Meanwhile, the electorate is watching. Communities such as Extremadura, Aragón and Castilla y León are anticipating dynamics that could be reflected in the heart of Madrid.

If the PP-Vox axis holds up to the test of day-to-day management, Spanish politics could enter a new phase. If, on the other hand, tensions emerge, instability will once again be the dominant feature.