Saudi Arabia and the United States are preparing to revive a partnership that could reshape the Middle East security picture. According to a report in the Financial Times, the Trump administration is reportedly working on a defence agreement with Riyadh, similar to the pact signed with Qatar last month, which would commit Washington to treat any attack on the kingdom as a direct threat to its national peace and security.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could sign the agreement as early as during his next visit to the White House, scheduled for next month. It would be a ‘robust’ agreement, expanding military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries, in a regional context marked by rising tensions between Israel, Iran and Gaza.

A strategic turning point for Riyadh and Washington

The deal under discussion reflects a profound change in Saudi strategy: after years of openness towards China and Russia, Riyadh seems ready to return under the American security umbrella. The prospect of a formal pact with the United States would represent not only a military guarantee, but also a clear political signal: the Saudi leadership intends to reaffirm its central role in the Arab world, within a new architecture of alliances in the Persian Gulf.

For Trump, this would be a symbolic and strategic success. The possible expansion of the Abrahamic Accords, which he himself relaunched with the announcement that ‘Saudi Arabia and others will soon join‘, would reinforce the narrative of a stabilised Middle East thanks to American diplomacy, as opposed to the chaos generated by the disengagement policies of recent years.

The Iranian shadow and the Gaza issue

Behind the diplomatic dimension, however, the agreement has a clear deterrent value towards Iran. Riyadh, despite timid attempts at détente initiated in 2023, fearsgrowing instability in the region and Tehran’s ability to project power through allied militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

At the same time, the war in Gaza and the deterioration of relations between Israel and the Arab world make any normalisation between Riyadh and Tel Aviv more complex. A defence agreement with Washington could offer the Saudis the political space to approach Israel without compromising their legitimacy in the Muslim world, especially if accompanied by guarantees in favour of the Palestinian cause.

A foreign policy of realism and interests

For both Washington and Riyadh, this new pact is part of a logic of geopolitical realism. The United States aims to consolidate its influence in the Gulf at a time of global competition with China; Saudi Arabia, for its part, seeks to secure protection and stability in order to pursue the economic projects of Vision 2030, which require a less volatile regional environment.

But there are also risks: a mutual defence commitment with Washington could drag the United States into new regional crises, while for Riyadh it would mean giving up, at least in part, its diplomatic autonomy. Moreover, an overemphasis on themilitary axis could reduce the space for multilateral dialogue, undermining the attempts at détente that had reduced tension in the Gulf in recent years.

Trump’s Middle East: between pragmatism and the risk of instability

Trump ‘s announcement of an imminent expansion of the Abrahamic Accords is consistent with a pragmatic vision, centred on bilateral alliances and shared security interests. However, lasting peace in the region cannot be based on deterrence or defence agreements alone: it requires an inclusive political approach that recognises the complexity of ongoing conflicts, starting with that between Israel and Palestine.

If the new US-Saudi Arabia pact were to materialise, it would mark the return to a regional order based onAmerican hegemony. But the real challenge will be to understand whether this model, which privileges stability over dialogue, can really guarantee a sustainable balance in a Middle East that remains, today more than ever, fragmented and unpredictable.