A president without a government, but with a key role

Portugal is an atypical semi-presidential republic. The head of state is directly elected by the citizens, but does not exercise executive power. In other words, he does not govern, so he does not dictate the daily agenda of the executive. However, he has instruments that, at critical moments, become decisive: the legislative veto, the possibility of dissolving Parliament and, finally, the calling of early elections.

Presidential elections have been set for 18 January 2026, with a possible second round if no candidate exceeds 50 per cent.

In recent years, marked by a succession of political crises and close elections, this role of the president as ‘arbiter’ has strengthened. The presidency of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has transformed the office into something more than a symbolic function: a constant, popular presence, often capable of mediating between institutions and society. The result is that today the Portuguese Quirinal – Palácio de Belém – is perceived as a point of stability in a system that struggles to find it.

A crowded electoral field as a mirror of the crisis

Never before has the presidential race appeared so fragmented. Eleven candidates tell more than a thousand analyses about the state of Portuguese politics: a system in which traditional parties are losing their grip and new figures are trying to occupy spaces left uncovered. The competition does not stem from the attractiveness of presidential power per se, but from the symbolic and media value of the office, now perceived as a credible alternative to a weakened parliament.

The polls paint an unstable picture today: no candidate dominates, no one consistently passes reassuring thresholds. The first round almost inevitably appears to be a preliminary selection, destined to result in a highly unpredictable ballot, where last-minute convergences count more than various party loyalties.

André Ventura and the normalisation of the exception

The most ‘unwieldy‘ protagonist is André Ventura. Leader of the Chega party, a populist and nationalist formation, Ventura embodies the distrust of the system and the crisis of representation of the historical parties. Issues such as immigration, security and public order find in him a direct voice, often too brutal, but very effective electorally.

His presence in the polls is no longer an anomaly: it is a constant. Ventura appears to be one of the most solid candidates for the runoff. The real unknown concerns the second round, where he should speak to a more moderate electorate, less inclined to radical solutions. His strength is unquestionable, but equally evident is the limitation he might encounter in his attempt to broaden consensus.

The candidates of the constituted order

On the traditional party front, Luís Marques Mendes represents the face of moderate conservatism. An experienced jurist, a historical figure in the PSD, he embodies an idea of an institutional, sober presidency, attentive to balance. He is a reassuring candidate, especially in a context of instability, but one who struggles to enthuse the spirits of an increasingly disillusioned electorate.

Instead, António José Seguro, an expression of the Socialist Party, attempts to relaunch a political force in obvious difficulty. His candidacy is also an internal bet: to restore credibility to a party that is paying for divisions, attrition and loss of trust. The polls show him fluctuating, a sign of a fragile consensus.

The particular case of Gouveia and Melo: prestige without narrative

Completing the electoral picture among the presidential hopefuls is Henrique Gouveia and Melo, a former admiral and the symbolic face of pandemic management. His personal esteem is high, built on the image of competence and discipline. However, his entry into political competition has revealed obvious limitations: rigid communication, poor media charisma and, finally, difficulty in transforming respect into electoral consensus.

His trajectory tells something broader: in a politics increasingly dominated by narrative, technical prestige is not enough if it is not accompanied by an effective communicative presence.

An open scenario, a definitely inevitable ballot

The most solid fact of this election remains uncertainty. No written winner, no definitive axis. The runoff appears to be a foregone conclusion, but who will get there and with what political convergence remains an open puzzle. In the background weighs the current government led by Luís Montenegro, supported by a fragile majority and constantly exposed to parliamentary pressures, forced mediations and votes whose outcome is never a foregone conclusion.

In this context, the presidency takes on an even more central value as a stabilising factor. It is no coincidence that figures such as João Cotrim de Figueiredo, of the IL party, although far from the final victory, could prove decisive in the second round, offering packages of moderate and liberal consensus capable of orienting the outcome of the runoff. So, what future for Portugal?

Lisboa, today, seeks a figure capable of holding tensions, absorbing conflicts and accompanying democracy in the country towards better times.