Thelatest article from the US State Department, signed by Secretary Marco Rubio, was not long in making the rounds of the world and chancelleries.

On the surface, the topic is one of the most boring and ceremonious: holding the next G20 in Miami in December 2026.

Insider stuff, you might think. Nothing could be more wrong. In the paper, Rubio puts down in black and white a significant shift in American foreign and multilateral policy, with strong repercussions on Europe as well: out of South Africa from the G20, in with Poland.

From the shadow of Moscow to the light of the free market

Historical readers will remember our predilection for telling the story of Sarmatian affairs. Illo tempore we have unravelled the political,economic and social secrets of the rebirth of the ‘Christ of nations’ from Soviet oblivion, following step by step the evolution of the continent’s most established ‘innovation hub’.

2025 was an important year, marked by the six-month presidency of the European Council and especially the presidential elections, won in the second round by PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki.

The newfound cohabitation, coupled with the intensification of Moscow-led hostile operations inside the country(most notably the trespass by dozens of Russian drones last September), have not slowed the country’s growth, quite the contrary.

According to the IMF, Polish GDP will exceed USD 1 trillion in 2025, certifying the country’s entry into the ‘club of the trillionaires‘.

This exceptional figure will allow Poland to join the world’s twenty largest economies by nominal GDP.

It is no coincidence that the first former satellite republic of Moscow to enter this coveted circle is Poland. Whose merit lies in the critical transition model applied by the country in the transition from communism to the free market.

A model that rewarded entrepreneurship rather than oligarchic corruption, in a capitalist conversion quite different from that which occurred in most of the former Soviet states.

The numbers of the ascent

Also this year, according to ING’s analysis, Polish growth will outperform European growth by more than two points. A country that in 1989 had nothing, now drags an entire continent struggling to keep up.

In the reports for the third quarter of 2025, Poland’s GDP is expected to increase by 3.7 per cent year-on-year, with an overall growth projection of 3.5 per cent. The European average is between 1.3 and 1.5 per cent, with countries such as Italy and Hungary expected at between 0.5 and 0.6 per cent.

Driving the upturn is sustained domestic consumption and continued improvements in industrial activity, which is growing despite the continental weakness of manufacturing, which is holding up in Poland.

The secret? Tax advantages for businesses, tax breaks on earnings and labour taxes, investment in entrepreneurship training and guarantees of certain timeframes for private bureaucratic procedures.

This slow transition from the collectivist model to the capitalist one, aided in its gradualness by the markedly Polish distrust of the new, as is still witnessed today by the coldness with which Poles welcome the country’s economic achievements(ARC study Rynek i Opinia), has allowed the development of a winning model in a fertile territory. Divided on many things, but in agreement on its destiny.

Atomised but united: Polish Politics Facing Major Challenges

Poland’s young democratic system, enshrined in the 1997 Constitution, is certainly not immune to the weaknesses typical of countries in transition.

Theatomisation of the party system, with the continual rise and die of post-ideological political movements with centrifugal political tendencies, typical of the early 2000s, has recently been balanced by two factors: the stability of semi-presidentialism and the emergence of two predominant parties, PiS and Piattaforma Civica.

It might seem paradoxical, but the balance is ensured precisely by the primacy of these two ideologically distant subjects, one currently holding the presidency with Nawrocki and the other the leadership of the government with Tusk.

The two camps diverge, even vigorously, on most domestic and economic policy issues, but have the merit of uniting the country in the face of major challenges.

Idea of nationhood, anti-Moscow aversion, closeness to Washington and Ukraine. We will never see politics and public opinion split on these issues, as is always the case insouthern European countries.

That is why, in line with widespread national pride, Tusk, Nawrocki and civil society are aligned in claiming and pursuing Poland’s entry among the ‘great winds’ of the world. In what is not an exercise in ceremonial style, but a true national diplomatic and political goal.

The G20 between economics and diplomacy

To read Rubio’s words objective achieved, one would say. The reality, as is often the case especially when we talk about the proclamations of the current American administration, is a bit more complex.

It is worth mentioning that the G20, which has been active since 1999 to bring together the world’s most prosperous governments and economies, has no statehood of its own and is an informal international pseudo-organisation .

In the absence of treaties, the membership criterion is dictated by custom, tending to favour balance and representation of all global areas rather than rigid rankings of economic indicators. That said, each host country has the option to invite observer countries or, as Rubio announced, to exclude historical participants.

Hence the historic membership of countries such as Argentina and South Africa in the forum. Certainly less wealthy economic systems than several European non-permanent member countries, but essential to ensure the representation of Latin America and Africa.

Eagle or wolf, Warsaw increasingly between Brussels and Washington

The US is therefore free to ignore South Africa in the 2026 work, but replacement with Poland remains difficult. The most likely scenario sees the Sarmatian republic being granted permanent host status, as was already the case for Spain and the Netherlands, in order not to create ‘excess Europe’ in the forum.

An outcome that would in any case be of historic significance, testifying to the country’s new power projection on the global chessboard.

Never before have the Yankee and Polish eagles been so aligned. Today Warsaw is Washington’s most reliable ally on the old continent, even though it enjoys wide strategic autonomy. The relationship with the other European states remains to be resolved: will we polonise ourselves or will they Europeanise themselves?

As an old Polish proverb from the Cold War years used to say: ‘between Washington and Moscow, we choose Warsaw!’ Today that crossroads is also ours, the choice between eagles and bears: Europe!