The France of October 2025 is a suspended country, trapped in a political crisis that has seen three governments collapse in a few months . At the heart of this chaos, former Prime Minister François Bayrou ‘s speech to the National Assembly on 8 September 2025, ‘ You can overthrow the government, but you cannot erase reality’, resounds ever louder.

His words, uttered as his government fell under a no-confidence motion (364 votes against), illuminate today’s impasse: a worn-out parliament, incapable of courageous choices, and the ephemeral succession of Lecornu governments, which today bends to fiscal demagoguery in order to survive. Bayrou, desperately trying to impose an austerity budget to tame the public debt, had defied fiscal reality. His fall, followed by the two Lecornu governments, certifiesFrance’s refusal to face uncomfortable truths.

Macron and the early election disaster

The crisis is rooted in Emmanuel Macron’s choice to dissolve parliament in 2024, after his defeat in the European elections. The president, more focused on international prestige than on domestic problems, has consumed prime ministers in repetition: Michel Barnier, ousted over budget disagreements; Bayrou, overwhelmed by the same issue; and now Lecornu, a loyalist forced to lead two governments in a month. Lecornu’s first attempt, appointed after Bayrou, lasted only 26 days, until 6 October, with a government crippled at the start due to its repetitive composition.

Renominated on 11 October, Lecornu succumbed to pressure on 14 October, announcing the suspension of the 2023 pension reform until 2027, a move that betrays Bayrou’s warning, choosing political expediency over reality.

Pension reform: give in to survive today, but what about tomorrow?

Macron’s flagship pension reform of 2023 raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030 and increased contributions for a full pension. Conceived to tackle debt and an ageing population, it became the target of popular anger. Lecornu, by suspending the age increase until 2028 and blocking the extension of contributions, opted for a postponement costing EUR 400 million in 2026 and EUR 1.8 billion in 2027, benefiting 3.5 million workers but at the expense of the future. A concession to placate the 69 socialist deputies and neutralise the no-confidence motions of Rassemblement Nationaland France Unbowed, which ignores Bayrou ‘s call not to escape reality.

Socialists and Lecornu: the fear of choice

The Socialist Party, once the standard bearer of reformism, has bowed to demagogy, demanding the blocking of the reform as the price for not voting no-confidence. This timidity betrays Bayrou‘s warning: in an ageing society, with pensions weighing on budgets and a growing debt, postponing choices is an illusion. The socialists prioritise electoral consensus overfairness between generations, while Lecornu merely survives, with a concession that is not strategy, but tactics to avoid collapse. On social media, there are those who speak of a predictable parliamentary ‘Groundhog Day’, with Lecornu repeating mistakes and the socialists feigning indignation, while the debt grows.

Macron: Between Foreign Greatness and Internal Chaos

Macron has much to blame himself for. Caught up in his international travels-summit on Ukraine or Gaza, speeches on Europe-he hasneglected France, where his approval rating is at 14%. His choice to dissolve parliament has produced an assembly without a majority, only cross-vetoes. The French system, designed for a strong executive, is jammed with a president at the end of the line, unable to run in 2027. By imposing pension reform by decree, without consensus, Macron ignited the crisis; now, his focus on foreign prestige leaves the internal fire unchecked. As Giulio Andreotti would say: ‘Better to get by than to kick the bucket‘. Macron and Lecornu, clinging to power, choose to float rather than face the storm, ignoring Bayrou’s warning.

Technical government: sitting on the river waiting for the flood

The result is a ‘national flotation’, a technical government that merely survives until 2027. Lecornu’s new cabinet, a mixture of technocrats and loyalists, has no great ambitions: just holding out, with moves like the pension freeze and vague promises of austerity. But the real flood-fiscal crisis, social protests, elections-is approaching.

France, home of the Enlightenment, takes refuge in postponement: why face reality when you can postpone it? Bayrou’s speech remains a compass: you can bring down governments, but the bill for debts, demographics and divisions cannot be erased.

Reality does not wait

In this crisis, an uncomfortable truth emerges. Politics, as Hannah Arendt would say, lives on possibilities, but in France it has become the art of escaping the real. The socialists bow to populism, Lecornu gives in to survive, Macron loses himself in his dreams of grandeur. As the republic totters, the question is whether the flood will sweep away not only governments, but also the illusions that keep them afloat. Because, as Bayrou warned, reality cannot be erased.