Once upon a time, in a past that seems prehistoric but is actually the day before yesterday, there was a political class that waved flags and promised a return to the glorious Lira.Italexit was not just an option; it was the magic solution, the miraculous balm for all our economic ills, from unemployment to public debt.

Listening to the prophets of abandonment, leaving the Euro would have been a painless operation, almost a ‘weekend currency change’.

The (forgotten) prophets of the farewell to the Euro

History is full of quotes that make one smile today. Or cry.

1. Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) – The strong thesis: In 2014, leader Giorgia Meloni stated categorically: on the Euro, ‘we are for getting out, we have said it a hundred times. The Euro is a wrong currency destined to implode’. Still in 2018, there was open talk of a consultative referendum as ‘the only way to our salvation’.
   
2. Lega – The weekend economy: Lega economist Claudio Borghi has repeatedly argued that a return to the Lira with a competitive devaluation would magically solve all problems. Matteo Salvini himself has long kept the hypothesis of abandonment alive, treating it as a pragmatic option if European conditions worsened.
   
3. 5 Star Movement (M5S) – The institutional soul (rediscovered): The M5S, especially in its early days with Beppe Grillo, also rode the Eurosceptic wave, proposing a referendum on the Euro and describing the monetary union as a systemic failure.

Strange, though, how all these ‘prophets’, once they have reached government seats or in view of positions of responsibility, have suddenly rediscovered the joys of belonging. The Euro, which used to be the chain, has become the shield.

The paradox is crystal clear: they tried to convince us that the Euro was absolute evil. Then, once they discovered that Europe is the only one distributing the funds (like the generous NextGenerationEU), the urgency of Italexit melted away like snow in the sun. Better to stay in the club, especially when the bill comes due… or the funds to be collected.

Devaluation and leap into the dark: The price of nostalgia

Many of us wondered: but what would have really happened if they had pressed the Italexit button?

Let us analyse for a moment the economic plan that the supporters promised. The heart of the operation was competitive devaluation: print new ‘lira’ and let the market decide their (low) value.

• The saver’s illusion: The New Lira (according to moderate estimates) would immediately devalue by 20-30% against the Euro. Imagine the ordinary citizen waking up and discovering that his salary remained nominally the same, but bills, petrol and all imported products cost a third more. Competitive at last! Too bad that olive oil has become a luxury good like truffles, and holidays abroad a distant memory.
  
• The national debt (a.k.a. the Titanic): Supporters said: “Let’s redenominate our 2,800 billion debt in new lira!” Beautiful. Too bad Italy would immediately be considered a financial pariah. The reaction of the markets, with an assault on the banks to withdraw euros and a surge in interest rates, would have made our debt unmanageable.
  Goodbye spread, hello hyperinflation!

Italexit was the financial equivalent of shooting yourself in the foot to cure a headache. A nightmare painted as a dream, where the real losers would be the weakest and those with savings.

The benefits of being together (when reason prevails)

Fortunately, reality intervened to calm the boiling spirits. Today, it is undeniable that the Euro is our solid, if boring, anchor of security. In particular, guaranteeing:

• Price stability: The euro has put an end to the chronic inflationary spiral that was eroding Italians’ wages and savings. Having a strong currency managed by a supranational entity (the ECB) guarantees stability and credibility.
  
• Single market: We are the fifth net exporter in the world. Our economy is based on European integration. The Euro eliminates transaction costs, exchange rate uncertainty and makes us a reliable trading partner within the largest integrated market on the planet.
  
• The parachute (when needed): In times of crisis (like pandemic), who saved us? Not a lone ‘new lira’, but the activism of the European Central Bank (with its Quantitative Easing) and, above all, the more than EUR 200 billion guaranteed by the NextGenerationEU plan.

Europe is ugly and bureaucratic, they say. But when the world stops, it is the only one to send billions for recovery instead of pats on the back.

But Europe must get out of bed

The idea of our Italexit can be buried among the junk of history. However, Europe cannot afford to lull itself into complacency.

The euro has given us stability, but the world has changed. The real challenges are not internal, but external: the superpowers. The US and China move as economic, technological and military blocs.

If Europe wants to avoid becoming a geopolitical playground, or a mere outlet market for Silicon Valley and Shenzhen products, it must stop arguing about the ‘cent’ and take the final leap: complete the real Union.

The crux of the matter is this: the stability brought by the Euro is fragile because the Monetary Union has remained stunted. We have the common currency, but we lack a common economic government. For Italy, and Europe as a whole, to truly compete, they must be willing to surrender the last, small, but vital piece of national sovereignty.

True sovereignty is not achieved by going back to printing lira worth waste paper, but by agreeing to share power to create a bloc that can truly compete. Either we surrender a small piece of sovereignty to gain strength, or we cling to nationalist rhetoric and end up being crushed, one after the other.

Europe must act on four interconnected pillars:

1. Fiscal Union: Having a central European budgetary mechanism, capable of acting as an economic stabiliser and issuing common debt, sharing the risk for overall stability.
   
2. Capital Markets Union (CMU): Create a single stock exchange and uniform rules for financial markets. This would channel European savings into European investments, unlocking billions for our SMEs and reducing dependence on Wall Street.
   
3. Energy Union: Complete the Energy Union by creating a single market and a common supply and storage policy. This will free us from strategic dependence on external suppliers and stabilise prices for households and businesses.
   
4. Defence and Technology: Moving from military fragmentation to strategic autonomy, investing in innovation so as not to be dependent on the US and Chinese giants.

The only exit Europe has to fear is its exit from history as a global player. True sovereignty is built together.