A year ago I delighted on these pages to elect, in an almost puerile exercise of style, the so-called ‘geopolitical winner’ of 2024.

The choice then fell on Turkish ‘sultan’ Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fresh from a coup in Syria at the hands of the current President Al-Sahara, whom I still calledAl Jolani in the article. (eh how times change)

Today, at the conclusion of this convulsive 2025, it occurred to me to play the same game. Following the logic of geopolitics, the study of human political behaviour in relation to a space or an environment, I tried to retrace the events of the past year to designate an international character or subject worthy of singing victory over all.

Reading and re-reading articles and magazines, no situation seemed to convince me fully. So I started to reason by subtraction, noticing that ideas were flowing in.

It was enough for me to realise that no international player can end the year with the satisfaction of having excelled on the chessboard in terms of results and strategies.

Therefore, I have decided briefly to set out, in a few lines, some facets of my reasoning on a case-by-case basis. To conclude that it was only chaos that dominated this year.

The geopolitical winner of 2025 is not Trump

The man the world had been waiting for, the dealmaker who could end all wars with a phone call. 2025 began under the banner of Donald, who took office again in the White House on 20 January .

From that moment on, on the strength of the decisionist and pacifist frame created during the election campaign, the tycoon launched himself into performative geopolitics, being frozen by the harsh reality of things.

In order: the face-to-face with Zelensky in the Oval Office, the delirious war of tariffs initiated against half the world (allies first and foremost), the red carpet to Putin in the failed Anchorage parade, theforced intervention against Iran and thatinterminable negotiation over the future of Ukraine.

These are just a few of the strategic slips of the 47th presidency, which ends the year with no major achievements on the international stage (we will talk about the Sharm accords later) and a growing mistrust of it on the part of the electorate and, in particular, of the historic allies who have recognised the US as the cradle of the free world for eighty years.

The beginning of the Donald-bis, in short, was not a success.

The geopolitical winner of 2025 is not Putin

Trumpian gift of Anchorage aside, it can be said that Vladimir Putin is for all intents and purposes sitting at the table of the losers of this 2025.

On the eve of the fourth year of war, the country is increasingly revealing its cardboard economy, in a slow collapse that on the other hand sees no results on the field and diplomatically.

Energy sales decline, oil prices fall, only military spending increases, forcing the government to raise VAT. These are some of the macroeconomic figures of the Federation, no longer an economic superpower. Added to these numbers are the losses of men in the field, four hundred thousand in one year, and the growing dependence on China.

If in 2026 Putin might achieve something militarily and diplomatically, we can be sure that in the long run Russia will emerge poorer, weaker and less autonomous from this war. Certainly not a great victory for the Tsar.

The geopolitical winner of 2025 is not Ukraine

On the other barricade of the front, there is Ukraine. Again this year, in defiance of those who foresee its fall from 24 February 2022, Ukraine has resisted, and will resist again.

However, the fact remains that the country is currently still involved in a bloody and costly conflict, and enemy soldiers still occupy around 20 per cent of its territory.

Add to this the difficulties in supplying the army and theambiguity of the American ally; with European support that has never lacked, but has never yet been incisive.

It is important to repeat that anything other than the disintegration of the country, for Zelensky, is a victory, but certainly a nation that is battered, and will continue to be so, for this year sadly cannot sing victory.

The geopolitical winner of 2025 is not the ‘Axis of Evil‘

Iran, Assad’s Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemenite Houthi rebels and Iraqi Shia militias.

Some of these subjects have even disappeared, the others are not having idyllic days. The real long wave of 7 October 2023 is the defeat of the axis orbiting Tehran. Assad deposed, Hezbollah annihilated, Hamas nearing its end, missiles neutralised in Iraq and Bab-el-Mandeb, all the way to the ‘12-day war’ between Tel-Aviv and Tehran. This is the terrifying balance of the last year.

WithOperation Rising Lion, Israel has shown the world all the weakness of the Ayatollahs’ regime, struck to its core after the systematic fall of its proxies. With the protests of the last few days, Iran is vigorously reliving the prospects of a coup d’état. And we trust in a ‘lion-like’ 2026.

The geopolitical winner of 2025 is not Israel (let alone Netanyahu)

Having listed the military successes against the axis of evil, one must dwell on the increasingly compromised position of the Israeli government internationally and diplomatically. Netanyahu has just been received by Trump as a hero, but major political disputes remain on the table. The tenuous truce in Gaza is struggling to be followed up in ‘phase 2′, while the Knesset authorises the establishment of a further 19 settlements in the West Bank and tightens its grip on humanitarian activities in the conflict zones.

The aggressive policy of the right-wing government, held hostage to the extremist rantings of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich (see: dl death penalty), has driven the country into thecorner of international politics. Not only isolation and ostracism, but a veritable wave of anti-Semitism against the entire Jewish people. Victim yes of the ghosts of the past, but also of Netanyahu’s policy.

In Israel it promises to be a very hot election 2026, we will see.

The geopolitical winner of 2025 is not China (or even the BRICS)

The myth of ‘imminent overtaking’ already seems a distant memory. Today, Chinese families, trapped in the demographic contraction inherited from the short-sighted ‘one-child’ policy, face a prolonged ‘budget recession’. Less consumption, bursting of the real estate bubble and rising youth unemployment are some of the most worrying indicators. Internationally, weakened by the trade skirmishes with the US and Japan, the Dragon’s mercantile policy expands but does not consolidate, making clear itsinadequacy to replace the US ruler .

Testifying to the weakness of the ‘new global order’ is the crumbling of the BRICS on virtually every relevant strategic issue, such as rare earths and the hypothetical common reserve currency. The alliance is increasingly showing itself for what it is: a messy oppositional and non-propositional alignment. In the absence of a common worldview, the challenge to the US is postponed. With a special eye, in 2026, on Taiwan.

The 2025 geopolitical winner is, again, not Erdogan

The President of Turkey, who closed 2024 as the kingmaker of international and domestic politics, did not repeat last year’s winning results in 2025.

In the past 12 months internal tension has characterised the political agenda, following the arrests of Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu and hundreds of other local administrators from the opposition CHP party. In parallel,the appeasement process with the Kurdish PKK and the Middle East dynamics are consolidating Erdogan’s autocratic and authoritarian policy in the run-up to the 2028 presidential elections.

The great focus on regional events has probably distracted the rais from his role as an international mediator of excellence. At the moment, Turkey is defiladed in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and plays a minor role in the Israeli-Palestinian affair. This does not rule out surprises in 2026, from the man we have come to know as one of the shrewdest in the global chessboard.

The geopolitical winner of 2025 is not the European Union (neither Meloni, nor Macron, nor von der Leyen)

And then there is us. Terracotta shard among iron pots.

The year was marked by the Rearm Europe- Readiness 2030 programme, and by tensions with the American ally. The divisions within the Union are not new, the current leaders seem frightened by the challenges of the present, and the community structure proves fragile in the current competitive anarchy. That said, we enter 2026 with two realisations: the whole world fears a more united Europe and, however much Trump and Putin may fantasize about it, we will not leave Ukraine alone, and a solution to the issue is unlikely to be found without us.

It is now up to us to push the continental governments to believe more in our strength and unite our energies so that 2026 can finally be ‘our European year’.

Dynamic chaos in an unstable world

Thus, we end this 2025 under the banner of chaos. Without, objectively, glimpsing any possible brightening in the coming 2026. This leaving was also the first full year to be covered, every day, by the articles and news of L’Europeista.

So, as we look forward to 2026, we make you a simple promise: we will be there.

To recount this chaos and to accompany you in the analysis of this complicated reality. Without betraying, ever, our mission called Europe. Happy New Year to all.