The wait of a quarter of a century is over. Today, 9 January 2026, the ambassadors of the 27 EU countries gave the final go-ahead for the signing of the free trade agreement with the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay). The ‘ball’ quickly passed between the feet of politics and, despite the barricades raised to the last by France and part of Central Europe, economic pragmatism prevailed. Circumventing even that unwritten rule of ‘false unanimity’ that was never to displease Paris and Berlin.

The agreement, which has remained dusty on the desks of Brussels for almost 25 years, is suddenly coming to life. If for decades (by some even today) it was seen as a ‘bogeyman’ for European agriculture, today it represents the cornerstone of a new trade architecture.

Donald Trump’s push and ‘Liberation Day’

To understand how this lightning signing came about after decades of stalemate, one has to look overseas. The name and date are those we had already identified: Donald Trump and 2 April 2025. That ‘Liberation Day’ and the imposition of massive tariffs by the United States acted as a catalyst. Europe, caught in the grip of Washington’s protectionism, realised it could no longer stand by and watch. Brussels’ response was united: diversify in order not to succumb.

A piece of a larger mosaic: Canada, Mexico and Indonesia

Mercosur is not an isolated case. This treaty implements and strengthens a network of strategic agreements that the European Union has accelerated in recent months. The agreement joins the already operational CETA with Canada and the renewal of the agreements with Mexico (often underestimated, but crucial for manufacturing trade). Added to this is the axis withIndonesia, crucial for South-East Asia. Together, these treaties form a ‘preferential corridor’ that allows European companies to bypass American barriers, creating an alternative market covering almost every continent.

Raw materials and energy: the real treasure of Mercosur

In addition to the trade figures (involving some 700 million consumers), the real added value of today’s agreement lies in energy security and critical raw materials.

The Mercosur countries are not only agricultural giants, but mining giants:

• Lithium and Copper: Essential for the green transition and the European automotive industry (Argentina and Brazil are rich in them).
• Green Hydrogen: South America is becoming the world’s hub for low-cost clean energy production.
• Gas and Oil: In an era of geopolitical instability, privileged access to the energy resources of this area grants Europe a strategic independence it did not have before.7

The numbers of the challenge: Italy and the safeguard clauses

Italy played a decisive role. The Italian go-ahead came with firm guarantees: the safeguard clauses were strengthened. Should imports of sensitive products (beef, poultry, sugar) exceed the threshold of 5% of EU production, automatic blockades will be triggered. Furthermore, the lowering of duties on fertilisers will help our farmers to reduce their production costs, offsetting the pressure of South American competition.

A political signal beyond numbers

Althoughexports to the US (532 billion in 2024) remain numerically irreplaceable compared to the volumes with Mercosur and Mexico, the value of this agreement is symbolic and prospective.

By signing in Paraguay on 12 January, Europe is officially declaring that it does not want to be a passive victim of the trade war between titans. The strategy is clear: protection is answered with openness; duties are answered with new routes. Only through this diversification – linking the prairies of South America to the mines of Canada and the factories of Mexico – can the EU hope to maintain its economic relevance in the new world disorder.