The strategic, political and military value of the eastern heart of Ukraine

The maps released by Donald Trump and commented on by various US analysts reflect a simplified and superficial view of the war in Ukraine.

The idea, also launched by Moscow, of “freezing the conflict” along the current borders of the Donbass may seem, at first sight, a pragmatic proposal.
In reality, it conceals a strategic disaster for Kyiv: it would mean handing over to Russia the industrial, mining and defensive heart of the East, moving the front into open territories, without fortifications and consolidated military infrastructure.

With Russia slowly moving east and the city of Donetsk firmly occupied since 2014, the real stake today is the part of the region still controlled by Ukraine the urban triangle consisting of Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk.
This is where the fate of the resistance is decided. Losing this area would mean not only losing territory, but losing the ability to defend itself.

Military node: the heart of western defence system

Over the past decade, Ukraine has transformed the western portion of the Donetsk region into a multi-level fortress: trenches, concrete bunkers, underground posts, logistics centers and ammunition warehouses connected by tunnel networks.
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are the operating brains of the Eastern Front, where brigade commands, vehicle repair workshops, health facilities and main railway supply nodes are concentrated.

For now, the Russian advance remains extremely slow in the range of a few hundred meters per week due to the Ukrainian resistance and the intensive use of FPV drones, which have drastically reduced the mobility of Russian mechanized vehicles.

But the risk is clear: if the Ukrainian lines give way, or if the flow of Western aid is reduced, the war would enter a more mobile phase, in which the drones would lose some of their effectiveness and the Russian superiority in artillery and men would return decisive.

This scenario is already visible in the Russian offensive on Velyka Novosilka, where the lack of structured fortifications and the different direction of defenses allowed Moscow to gain ground more quickly..

The mines and economic value of Donetsk

In addition to the military dimension, Donetsk has an economic and strategic centrality that makes its sale unthinkable.
This region is the mining and industrial engine of Ukraine: coal, iron, titanium, manganese and basic raw materials for heavy industry and energy production.
Its subsoil is home to some of the most productive mines in Europe, and for decades has provided energy and work for the entire country.

Before 2014, Donetsk contributed more than 15% of the Ukrainian GDP and provided a major share of thermoelectric production.

Today, the part still under Ukrainian control of the western belt of the basin supplies the industrial poles of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia and ensures rail connections between the East and the center of the country.
Giving it up would mean losing the remaining energy autonomy and handing over total control of the coal basin to Russia, with devastating economic and military consequences.

An unsustainable withdrawn

A possible withdrawal from this area would mean moving the front towards the Dnipro river, abandoning not only cities but critical infrastructures
: railways, energy depots, workshops and industrial areas. To the west of the Donbass, the terrain becomes over flat, open, without large centers and difficult to defend.

A Russian victory in this area would allow Moscow to reorganize its forces and relaunch a large-scale offensive in 2026, with objectives that would go far beyond the Donbass.

The political imperative: Zelensky cannot afford it

On the domestic political level, the sale of what remains of the Donetsk region would be a political suicide.
For Ukrainian public opinion, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are symbols of the resistance born in 2014.
For the military and nationalist bands, the free Donbass is an insurmountable red line. For President Volodymyr Zelensky, accepting a retreat would mean breaking the relationship of trust with the armed forces and the mobilized population.
In a country where war is now part of the collective identity, no leadership would survive such a decision politically.
Moreover, a retreat would breathe new life into the Russian narrative that “Ukraine cannot win”, erode Western support and open the way to pressure for a Moscow-dictated ceasefire.

Materialschlacht: war of materials

The war in the Donbass has become a real Materialschlachta “battle of materials” where industrial power and logistics count as much as value on the ground.
Every metre of land costs lives, artillery, drones and fuel.
Moscow focuses on the quantity of men, bullets, mass production while Kyiv responds with technology, precision and tactical adaptation.

But in order to sustain this symmetry, Ukraine must maintain its strongholds and concentrate the war on a specific part of the country.

Defending the free part of Donetsk is not a question of prestige, but of strategic, economic and political survival.
Losing it would mean breaking the front, destroying years of defensive infrastructure, undermining army morale and opening the way for negotiations from a position of weakness.

As the ISW (war studies institute) observes, “Ukraine may be losing ground, but it cannot lose the ability to defend itself.” If the free Donetsk falls or is surrendered, the current or future war will change from territorial defense to possible strategic retreat without depth.
For Zelensky, for the army and for Europe, this is the true line of Ukraine’s Piave: a line that cannot be crossed without questioning the very existence of the Ukrainian state.