Cameroon is one of the ‘target’ countries of the Meloni government’s mythological ‘Mattei Plan’. Yet, in Italy, almost no one is covering what is happening after the presidential elections on 12 October, in which President Paul Biya (93 years old, in power for 43 years) ran again for his seventh term, which in the event of victory would end at the age of 100.
From us, very little news and only in the specialised press on Africa; nothing on TV, with the exception of a paradoxical report aired yesterday on Rai 3’s “Agenda del mondo” programme, hosted by Maria Cuffaro, which – perhaps through the casual use of a sort of “artisanal intelligence”, i.e. the recovery here and there of official news from regime sources – ended up offering awork of disinformation rather than information, reconstructing the Cameroonian elections as the umpteenth plebiscitary victory of Biya, even supported by the young people of the so-called “Generation Z”. Nothing could be more false.
The real situation, which can be easily learned from the numerous testimonies and images of ordinary Cameroonian citizens and politicians online (despite the fact that the regime has been trying in every way to block the Internet for days), is the one described by Calixthe Beyala, the most important contemporary Cameroonian writer, whose novels, published by Feltrinelli, are also well known in Italy:

“Biya has already lost this presidential election. All parties say so, and the results, seat by seat, prove it. The next president of Cameroon is Issa Tchiroma Bakary. The big question is: will Biya have the grace to cede power or will he try to impose himself by falsifying the results?“

Thus the Cameroonian writer.

According to provisional results released by opposition parties and independent observers, Issa Tchiroma Bakary won by a significant margin over outgoing President Paul Biya, who has been in power for more than four decades. But Cameroon’s electoral law, which allows up to 15 days for the official results to be published, opens the door to possible manipulation by the regime. During this waiting period, power remains in the hands of the incumbent government and the process of counting and validating votes is entirely managed by institutions under the control of the regime, in particular the Constitutional Council, the only body authorised to proclaim the winner.
The electoral commission appointed by the government has started a frantic ‘recount’, in which, in numerous polling stations, victory is attributed to the outgoing president with more than 90% of the votes and, above all, with 100% of voters: an absurd circumstance, considering also the many war zones in the north-west of the country where no votes were even cast.
Today, the Constitutional Council, certain that ‘the work of reviewing the electoral data has been completed’, announced the proclamation of the official data for Thursday 23 October at 10 am. This is where the fears of many Cameroonians materialise: that the results will be ‘adjusted’ to ensure yet another victory for Biya, despite the fact that the data from the polling stations clearly indicate a triumph for Issa Tchiroma.

A country suspended in waiting

The streets of Yaoundé and Douala, the country’s main cities, are marked by a tense calm, as are those in the West, where the government party headquarters was set on fire. Above all, tension is rising in the North, in the region of Tchiroma, where the population has rallied to the defence of the ‘president elected by the people’, whom the regime has already threatened with arrest (only because he is claiming an electoral victory), by organising a popular presidential guard in front of his home.
The population is anxiously awaiting the announcement of the results – one only has to talk to any Cameroonian to find out how things really stand on the ground – while the opposition parties are demanding transparency and public access to the voting records. Civic organisations denounce that, in several regions, especially in the North and in the Anglophone areas, the polling operations were allegedly ‘corrected’ under the supervision of government officials.
The political climate remains explosive. Security forces are manning the main squares and the offices of opposition parties, while accusations of fraud and videos showing irregularities at the polling stations are multiplying on social networks. In some rural areas, witnesses report added pre-voted ballots and voters intimidated or prevented from voting.
Tchiroma, meanwhile, called for calm, but also warned that ‘no amount of manipulation will erase the will of the Cameroonian people‘. Taking note of the fraud in the electoral commission, his FNSC party has exited the body and Tchiroma himself announced today that, in response to the falsification of data, he will publish the records of the more than 30,000 polling stations scattered across the country that see him as the clear winner everywhere.

Young people, repression and possible scenarios

The average age in Cameroon is 18 and the so-called Generation Z voted en masse for Tchiroma, contrary to the narrative of the RAI report: his figure has become the reference point for a large segment of young people demanding a turnaround after decades of political and economic stagnation. Despite being close to Biya for years, his campaign has focused on a message of renewal and inclusion, finding an echo especially among the new urban generations.
Paul Biya, 92, has been in power since 1982 and is one of the longest-serving leaders on the African continent. Elections in recent years have regularly been marred by accusations of fraud and repression of the opposition. This time, however, the extent of popular discontent and growing international pressure could make it more difficult for overt manipulation of the vote.
However, the absolute control that Biya maintains over the institutions – army, judiciary, administration and especially the Constitutional Council – makes the risk of a ‘forced reconfirmation’ real. Many observers fear that the regime may take advantage of the two-week statutory period to ‘recalibrate’ the results and declare Biya the winner, invoking alleged irregularities in local counting or national security concerns.
The Cameroonian population remains divided between hope and fear. On the one hand, there is growing confidence in the change represented by Issa Tchiroma, an experienced politician perceived to be closer to the needs of the people. On the other, the experience of decades of contested elections fuels the suspicion that the will of the people may once again be betrayed.
As the days pass and the silence of the institutions becomes deafening, Cameroon remains suspended in a dangerous wait. The international community follows with concern, but many Cameroonians fear that, once again, their hopes for political alternation will be crushed by the weight of a regime that does not intend to relinquish power.
As Calixthe Beyala said, ‘the big question is whether Biya will have the grace to relinquish power or will try to impose himself by falsifying the results’. The answer to this question will determine the democratic future – or its ultimate end – in Cameroon.

In this context, a strong stance not only from Italy but also from the European Union would be necessary, considering that the European Parliament adopted a resolution on 31 March 2025 urging Cameroon to guarantee press freedom and access to the opposition in the run-up to the elections, calling for the EU and its member states to ‘use diplomatic and economic leverage to achieve tangible improvements’ in human rights.
Since the EU was not formally invited to observe with an accredited Election Observation Mission (EOM) for Cameroon’s 2025 presidential election, its institutions’ focus on ‘official’ election results should be even greater.