According to a tally by*Le Figaro*, with ten months to go before the election, around thirty prominent figures have so far declared their presidential ambitions, seventeen of them officially. It is worth noting that, in order to stand officially for the Élysée, every presidential hopeful must collect at least 500 valid signatures (parrainages) from elected local and national representatives (mayors, MPs, regional councillors). There are around forty thousand ‘eligible elected representatives’ across France; the signatures cannot all come from the same place. They must come from at least thirty different departments (the French provinces). Furthermore, no more than fifty signatures may come from a single department. Faced with an unprecedented number of presidential hopefuls, this rule may facilitate a natural selection process in the absence of primaries, on both the right and the left.

Polarisation and the Messmer precedent

The large number of candidates also reinforces the polarisation between the Rassemblement National (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI), which, unlike other political forces, have natural leaders. How far away it seems now from the time when Pierre Messmer, then Prime Minister under Georges Pompidou, refused to stand for election due to a lack of discipline within his political family, precisely to avoid a proliferation of candidates and the risk of defeat!

Mélenchon and the ‘sole candidate’s’ campaign

In officially announcing his fourth bid for the presidency, Jean-Luc Mélenchon did not hesitate to allude to this rift amongst his former comrades. “For us, it’s simple: there is one team, one programme and a single candidate,” declared the leader of La France Insoumise. This line was subsequently repeated by his supporters to discredit his left-wing opponents and, ultimately, to establish himself as the only credible alternative, despite his controversial personality.

The anti-LFI left is becoming fragmented

Meanwhile, the number of candidates from the anti-LFI left is growing, whilst the prospect of a primary election seems increasingly unlikely. At least a dozen prominent figures are seriously considering standing for election. From Raphaël Glucksmann to former President François Hollande and his former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, from Marine Tondelier to Clémentine Autain, Jérôme Guedj and François Ruffin – all officially candidates – the list of potential candidates is long and none are standing out in the various polls. Even the former leader of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, has not entirely ruled out the idea of standing.

The shadow of the 2002 election

Does the Left remember what happened in 2002? Although it held a majority in the country, it went into the election divided, with no fewer than five candidates securing 32.45 per cent of the vote; had these been combined with the votes from the far Left (in the second round), they might have enabled one candidate to be elected President; however, the fragmentation of the vote in the first round meant that Jospin, with 194,600 fewer votes than Jean-Marie Le Pen, failed to qualify for the second round.

On the right, dissident voices

The situation is more or less the same on the right: whilst Bruno Retailleau is officially the Republican (LR) candidate, chosen by party members, some in his inner circle have not given up on the idea of a breakaway venture. The Liberal mayor of Cannes, David Lisnard, has in fact taken the step of leaving the party to try his luck with his own movement, ‘Nouvelle Énergie’. The president of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand, continues to quietly develop a project following his defeat at the LR party congress in 2021. Furthermore, he will not be attending Bruno Retailleau’s major rally, nor will Laurent Wauquiez, whose true intentions remain difficult to decipher.

The battle for the legacy of Macronism

The legacy of Macronism is also the subject of a battle of personalities, between those seeking a clean break and those embodying a new centre-left–centre-right line. Gabriel Attal (Renaissance) has in fact announced his candidacy, despite polls showing Édouard Philippe (Horizons), the mayor of Le Havre, in the lead. But others, besides Macron’s two former prime ministers, have also floated the possibility of standing, such as the President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, and ministers Aurore Bergé and Gérald Darmanin. Are these genuine ambitions or tactical manoeuvres?

The far right and ‘remigration’

On the far right, alongside Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, Eric Zemmour is also expected to feature; he calls for‘remigration’and warns of the risk of‘ethnic replacement’.

The pilgrimage to de Gaulle’s grave

This Thursday, Édouard Philippe alone – welcomed by the president of the Grand Est region, Franck Leroy, one of his supporters – made the journey to Colombay-les-Deux-Églises to visit Charles de Gaulle’s grave and commemorate the appeal of 18 June 1940. The former Prime Minister, who had previously visited Colombey in 2017 and 2024, spoke of the importance of rediscovering de Gaulle. Édouard Philippe paid a silent tribute to General de Gaulle in front of his grave, which was adorned with several wreaths. Around thirty ‘pilgrims’, gathered for the 86th anniversary of the call to the Resistance, took part in the ceremony.

The tribute in front of the Cross of Lorraine

“No one owns General de Gaulle, no one is his heir, but everyone should be grateful to him,” he declared at the end of the military ceremony, which took place according to the usual programme: a flypast by two Rafale fighter jets, the reading of the Appeal of 18 June, the laying of wreaths, a minute’s silence, the singing of La Marseillaise, the Partisans’ Song, and salutes to the flag-bearers at the foot of the Cross of Lorraine.

A ‘European 18 June’

The mayor of Le Havre, keen to follow in the General’s footsteps, has decided to launch a pro-European appeal. A ‘Gaullist moment for Europe’, a‘European 18 June’, in his own words. ‘On 18 June 1940, General de Gaulle called on Free France to resist defeat.’ ‘The challenge for Europeans today is to resist resignation,’ he wrote in an opinion piece published in the magazine Le Grand Continent during his visit to Colombey.

‘Full sovereignty’ in four sectors

To avoid ‘silent vassalage’ and ‘continue to make our own decisions’, Édouard Philippe is promoting a principle of‘full sovereignty’at European level, across four sectors: energy, technology, defence and finance. Faced with China, the United States and the ‘tech giants’, ‘Europe must immediately focus its resources on these four vital policy areas, otherwise it will be defeated’.

‘Necessary’ immigration and the final challenge

Édouard Philippe, whilst maintaining that labour migration should be ‘selective and controlled’, admits without hesitation that‘immigration is necessary’. This position stands in stark contrast to that of the far right.

Uniting without diluting one’s principles, expanding without sacrificing one’s identity. This is Édouard Philippe ’s challenge in defeating the populists in a country with a clear right-wing lean.