When Qatar and the United Arab Emirates joined the US-led Pax Silica at the start of 2026, the development passed largely unnoticed in much of Europe. However, the initiative reflects a significant shift in global power in the age of artificial intelligence. Influence increasingly flows through control of industrial systems — including semiconductors, energy, data centres and critical materials — rather than through military strength alone.

Pax Silica brings together Australia, Greece, Israel, Japan, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, the UAE and the United Kingdom in what Washington describes as a ‘coalition of capabilities.’ Canada, the European Union, the Netherlands, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Taiwan participate as non-signatories.

Its underlying objective is to ‘reduce coercive dependencies’ — largely referring to China — in strategically sensitive technologies and to anchor supply chains within a US-led economic security framework. A senior US State Department official stated explicitly that Pax Silica membership requires fundamental geopolitical alignment with the US, whose aim is to win the AI race.

In this emerging global economic order, access to frontier computing power is increasingly structured by geopolitics rather than market logic. For Europe, this matters not only because of US–China competition, but because the Gulf states are quickly positioning themselves inside this emerging architecture.

Strategic Positioning in Abu Dhabi

Over the past decade, the UAE has treated AI as a national priority and part of its transition towards a knowledge-based economy. Since launching the region’s first National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence in 2017, establishing an AI-dedicated university in 2019 and appointing a minister responsible for AI in 2020, Abu Dhabi has embedded digital transformation into long-term national planning.

AI is a pillar of economic strategy, central to the ambition of becoming a global AI leader by 2031. That ambition has been led by G42, Abu Dhabi’s AI group, and backed by capital. In 2024, G42 and Mubadala launched MGX, a state-backed investment firm focused on AI infrastructure, semiconductors and core AI technologies.

In March 2025, the UAE committed to a 10-year US$1.4 trillion investment framework supporting US growth in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, quantum computing, biotechnology and advanced manufacturing.

Cooperation between Microsoft and G42 deepened after 2023, when the Emirati firm ended Chinese technology partnerships, enabling access to advanced US chips and expansion of data centres. Microsoft has signalled plans to invest more than US$15 billion in the UAE by the end of the decade. By anchoring itself within US-led networks, the UAE secured the export approvals and partnerships necessary to expand domestic computing capacity.

The UAE has further strengthened its AI capabilities by launching advanced Arabic large language models, Falcon-H1 and Jais 2, while also forming AI partnerships with European countries — notably France — with plans to build Europe’s largest 1.4 GW AI data centre campus in Paris.

Qatar’s Calculated Approach

Qatar has adopted a less visible but equally deliberate strategy. Its 2019 National AI Strategy framed artificial intelligence as integral to economic diversification. Doha has focused on embedding AI into its existing strengths, particularly the gas sector, while expanding targeted technology investments abroad.

In 2025, the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) indicated that advanced technology, including AI infrastructure, would anchor a significant expansion of US-focused investments over the coming decade. In December, QIA established a dedicated vehicle, Qai, to concentrate on AI-related assets both domestically and abroad.

Qai’s US$20 billion partnership with Brookfield aims to develop large-scale AI infrastructure in Qatar and position the country as a regional hub for AI services. Doha has also taken stakes in emerging US chipmakers developing energy-efficient AI components capable of competing with Nvidia.

As with the UAE, Qatar’s leverage depends on integration within US-controlled technology supply chains. Access to advanced technology remains politically conditioned, and alignment is a prerequisite for participation at the highest levels of the AI ecosystem.

The Gulf in the AI Value Chain

While national strategies differ, the Gulf’s structural advantages are regional. AI systems are energy-intensive and materially demanding. One of the Gulf’s key advantages lies in vast natural resources and reliable energy supply.

Qatar is one of the world’s largest natural gas producers, while the UAE and the wider Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) combine hydrocarbons with expanding renewables. Washington describes the Gulf states’ participation as a structural transformation of the regional order, shifting from a hydrocarbons-based security model to what it calls ‘Silicon Statecraft.’

Across the GCC, energy abundance, funding capacity and logistical connectivity are being converted into influence within AI-era production networks. Advanced semiconductors and data centres rely on materials such as aluminium, copper, lithium, rare earth elements and helium, alongside reliable energy.

The UAE and Bahrain rank among the world’s largest aluminium producers, while Saudi Arabia and Oman have elevated mining as a central pillar of economic diversification. Sovereign wealth funds and state-linked firms are expanding positions in strategic minerals through overseas mining investments and infrastructure finance.

This combination makes the region increasingly attractive for hyperscale data centres. Cloud infrastructure is expanding rapidly, turning the Gulf into a digital bridge between Europe, Asia and Africa. Major providers — including Alibaba, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle — are expanding across the GCC.

Beyond Qatar and the UAE, Saudi Arabia has launched a new AI company, Humain, under the Public Investment Fund. China’s Huawei maintains a large-scale cloud region in Saudi Arabia, which may explain Riyadh’s absence from Pax Silica so far, alongside Israel’s participation in the framework.

Yet this influence remains embedded rather than autonomous. Access to the most advanced semiconductors depends on US export approvals, and much of the core intellectual property and cloud architecture remains American.

European Stakes in the Shifting Order

Pax Silica presents a complex strategic calculus for Europe. The continent retains important industrial capabilities — notably ASML’s monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

However, the EU is only partially situated within the Pax Silica framework and has not articulated a unified position. This hesitation reflects strained transatlantic relations and uncertainty over long-term US policy, even as Gulf partners secure preferential access to cutting-edge technologies through US-led investments.

Technological power is increasingly defined by industrial positioning and supply-chain leverage, not research excellence alone. Fragmented or delayed alignment risks limiting European firms’ access to advanced computing and global markets, while excessive dependence on US frameworks may constrain strategic autonomy.

Infrastructure as Strategy

Pax Silica signals more than coordination — it marks the consolidation of technological blocs. Qatar and the UAE are anchoring their economic futures inside one such bloc by integrating into US-centred networks while seeking flexibility elsewhere.

The question for Europe is whether it will consolidate its capabilities within a coherent strategic framework of its own, or accept a position within a bloc defined by others — with reduced room for manoeuvre.