For Moldovans going to the polls today, the vote is not just about who will govern in Chișinău, but which direction the country will take in the heart of an unstable region. The republic of 2.4 million inhabitants, squeezed between Ukraine and Romania, faces an existential choice: consolidate the path towards the European Union or renew ties with Moscow. In the background, a fragile economy, a biting energy crisis and a conflict in Ukraine casting long shadows across the borders. Every seat won, every party admitted or excluded from the competition becomes a piece of a bigger game, which concerns both the survival of Moldovan democracy and the credibility of the European enlargement policy.

A decision that weighs on the electoral process

The electoral authority has decided to exclude the political party Great Moldova, accused of illicit financing, from the ballot box. It is the second pro-Russian party banned just days before the vote, after other formations considered to be linked to the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor.
The measure, although motivated by legal reasons, transcends the judicial dimension and lies at the heart of the geopolitical clash: Moldova’s orientation, between European integration and rapprochement with Moscow.

The electoral exclusions come in an already incandescent context. Today, Moldovans elect the 101 members of parliament with a closed-list proportional system, 5% threshold for parties and 7% for blocs. The stakes are very high: the country has started EU accession negotiations in 2024, but remains plagued by serious economic fragility, an energy crisis aggravated by the suspension of Russian gas to Transnistria, and the side effects of the war in Ukraine.

Shadows of Moscow and the Shor precedent

The Greater Moldova case did not come out of nowhere. According to the authorities, the party acted as the heir to the movement already outlawed and led by Ilan Shor, a controversial figure accused of corruption and now living in Moscow. Shor, who denies all accusations, is perceived by many as the face of Russian influence on Moldova’s internal affairs.
It is not surprising that Moscow is being pointed to as the covert director of a subversive campaign: money flows from Russian banks, plans to buy votes and foment violent protests, up to the arrests of 74 people on 22 September for alleged plotting with the support of Russian intelligence services.

The EU and the US are moving in the opposite direction, openly supporting the pro-European government of Maia Sandu. Leaders such as Emmanuel Macron visited Chișinău, while American senators called on Meta and Google to act against Russian disinformation. In this framework, every administrative measure takes on a political value and is perceived as part of an international game.

Polls and a divided country

The data show a polarised and uncertain electoral picture.
An iData poll (August 2025) gives the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS, pro-EU) about 36% of the votes among the decided voters, but more than 40% of the eligible voters remain undecided. According to IRI, the percentage of citizens convinced that the country is going in the ‘right direction’ is growing, while favour towards Russia is declining. However, pro-Russian forces remain substantial, with a pool of 20-25%, albeit weakened by exclusions.

PAS, led by Igor Grosu and linked to President Maia Sandu, aims to confirm the majority and pursue reforms for EU membership. On the opposite front, Igor Dodon’s Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP) proposes closer ties with Moscow, exploiting the discontent linked to inflation and the energy crisis. Other actors, such as Ion Ceban’s Alternative or Renato Usatîi’s Our Party, try to intercept the electorate tired of polarisation, with more pragmatic or populist tones.

The 2024 constitutional referendum, which included the goal of EU membership in the constitution with only 50.46% of the vote, remains a symbol of a deeply divided society.

A question of democratic credibility

Moldova is at a crossroads that goes beyond mere political alignments. The exclusion of several Moscow-linked parties risks fuelling accusations of bias, further polarising the internal debate. The heart of the problem is the democratic credibility of the electoral process: how can security and transparency be guaranteed without turning the rules into perceived political instruments of exclusion?

President Maia Sandu calls these elections ‘the most consequential’ in recent history. She is right: the outcome will determine not only the trajectory of Chișinău, but also the resilience of the European enlargement project in a region under Russian pressure.

Conclusions: Europe’s view

For Brussels, Moldova is a decisive test case. If the PAS succeeds in maintaining control, pro-EU reforms could accelerate; if not, a fragmented parliament or one dominated by pro-Russian forces could block or reverse the European path.

In any scenario, the risk of post-electoral instability is high: street protests, allegations of fraud, delays in forming a government. The challenge for Moldova will be twofold: resisting external interference and strengthening internal trust in democratic institutions.

For Europe, these elections are much more than a local event. They are a test of the EU’s ability to support its most vulnerable partners and to demonstrate that the prospect of membership is not just a bureaucratic exercise, but a political promise capable of withstanding the shocks of geopolitics.